Predictors of overall survival among Black South African men treated with androgen-deprivation therapy for metastatic prostate cancer.

Authors

null

Yoanna S Pumpalova

Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY

Yoanna S Pumpalova , Adarsh Ramakrishnan , Shauli Minkowitz , Sean Doherty , Elvira Singh , Audrey Pentz , Wenlong Carl Chen , Alfred I. Neugut , Timothy Rebbeck , Maureen Joffe

Organizations

Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, New York Presbyterian Hospital, New York, NY, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa, National Cancer Registry, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa, Witshealth, Sandton, South Africa, Columbia University Herbert Irving Comprehensive Caner Center, New York, NY, Division of Population Sciences, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, University of Witwatersrand Faculty of Health Sciences, Johannesburg, South Africa

Research Funding

U.S. National Institutes of Health
Conquer Cancer Foundation of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, U01-CA184374, P30 CA13696

Background: Men in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are disproportionately affected by prostate cancer (PCa), and many have metastatic disease (mPCA) at presentation. In SSA, androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is the first-line treatment for mPCa, and often the only available therapy. Treatment failure and death is common. We identified predictors of overall survival (OS) in Black South African (SA) men with mPCa on ADT. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of prospectively gathered data from men diagnosed with mPCA (3/22/2016 - 10/30/2020) at Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital in Johannesburg, which was also a study site for the concurrent Men of African Descent and Carcinoma of the Prostate study. We included men with mPCA treated with ADT (received at least 1 dose of luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist and/or had surgical castration), who had ≥1 PSA level drawn ≥12 weeks after ADT start. OS was defined from ADT start to death. PSA progression (PSA-P) definition was adapted from PCWG 3. Cox regression models were used to identify predictors of OS. PSA-P was treated as a time-dependent covariate. Results: Of 200 men with mPCa, we excluded 6 who did not receive ADT and 41 without sufficient data for PSA-P analysis. Of 153 men, 26.8% were <65 years old and 12% had a family history of PCa. Median PSA at diagnosis was 71.5 ng/mL (interquartile range (IQR) 20.7-432.6), median alkaline phosphatase level (ALP) 108 IU/L (79-224) and median hemoglobin (Hb) 13 g/dL (IQR 10-15). Median PSA nadir was 2.8 ng/mL (IQR 0.55-17.93). The rate of PSA-P at 1- and 2-years was 12.1% [95%CI 5.9-17.8] and 37.5% [95%CI 26.1-47.2]. The median follow-up was 2.75 years, and the 3-year OS was 61.9% [95%CI 52.7-72.6]. Cox proportional hazard ratio (HR) models of risk factors for OS are shown in Table 1. PSA-P was a strong predictor of OS. Men with PSA nadir >4ng/mL after ADT start had a HR for death of 3.77 [1.86-7.62]. Men with ALP >150 IU/L and those with Hb <13.5g/dL at diagnosis were also at higher risk for death (HR 3.09 [1.64-5.83] and HR 2.00 [1.28-6.56] respectively). Conclusions: Among Black men in SA treated with ADT for mPCA, PSA-P strongly predicts OS. In this cohort, high ALP and anemia at diagnosis, and PSA nadir >4ng/mL after ADT start are associated with higher risk for death. These factors can be used identify high risk men with mPCA, for whom early treatment escalation to chemotherapy should be considered.

Multivariate Cox proportional HR model of risk factors for OS in Black men with mPCa treated with ADT in Johannesburg, SA (2016-2020).
Characteristic
Multivariate HR
95% CI
p-value
Age ≥65 years
2.40
1.04-5.53
0.04
PSA at diagnosis ≥100 ng/mL
0.87
0.45-1.69
0.7
Tumor Volume ≥ 50%
1.29
0.65-2.54
0.5
Gleason Group
1.21
0.82-1.79
0.3
ALP >150 IU/L
3.09
1.64-5.83
<0.001
Hb <13.5 g/dL
2.90
1.28-6.56
0.01
PSA Nadir >4ng/mL
3.77
1.86-7.62
<0.001
PSA-P
3.52
1.85-6.70
<0.001

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2022 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

Genitourinary Cancer—Prostate, Testicular, and Penile

Track

Genitourinary Cancer—Prostate, Testicular, and Penile

Sub Track

Prostate Cancer– Advanced/Castrate-Resistant

Citation

J Clin Oncol 40, 2022 (suppl 16; abstr 5046)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2022.40.16_suppl.5046

Abstract #

5046

Poster Bd #

230

Abstract Disclosures