A novel support vector machine to predict sentinel lymph node status in elderly patients with breast cancer.

Authors

Abbas Hassan

Abbas Hassan

University of Texas MD Anderson, Houston, TX

Abbas Hassan , Nina Tamirisa , Puneet Singh , Anaeze Chidiebele Offodile II, Charles E. Butler

Organizations

University of Texas MD Anderson, Houston, TX, MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX

Research Funding

No funding received

Background: Routine sentinel lymph node biopsy in older breast cancer patients with favorable tumor biology is not recommended. However, cases must be evaluated on an individual basis to avoid under or over-treatment. Many nomograms have been developed to calculate the risk of nodal positivity, but machine learning (ML) is a novel tool that may improve the accuracy of nodal prediction. In this study, we developed a support vector machine (SVM) model to delineate factors indicative of sentinel lymph node positivity and refine individualized nodal risk assessment for this heterogeneous patient population. Methods: We conducted a single-institution comprehensive retrospective review of patients 70 years or older diagnosed with unilateral stage I–III primary breast cancer from January 2005 to January 2016. Patient data was partitioned into training and testing sets. A SVM model was developed to predict lymph node status using patients’ demographics, tumor stage, genetic profile, and imaging data. Primary outcome was model performance determined by area under the curve (AUC). Secondary outcomes were accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Permutation feature importance (PFI) analysis and accumulated local effect (ALE) plots were used to evaluate significant predictors identified by the SVM. Results: We identified 1706 consecutive patients who met the study criteria with a mean age of 76±4.5 years. The plurality of patients were Caucasian (82%), had ER+ (86%), PR+ (70%), HER2- (87%) stage I (72%) breast cancer. Sixteen percent of patients (n = 271) had a positive sentinel lymph node biopsy. The SVM model demonstrated good discriminatory performance for predicting sentinel lymph node positivity with mean AUC of 0.70 (95%CI, 0.62-0.77), mean accuracy of 84% (95%CI, 80-88%), mean sensitivity of 61% (95%CI, 57-66%), and mean specificity of 62% (95%CI, 52-73%). PFI and ALE identified higher disease stage, younger age, family history of breast cancer, margin status, estrogen and progesterone receptor positivity as independently associated with high risk of sentinel lymph node positivity. Conclusions: The proposed ML model accurately identified sentinel lymph node status in older patients with breast cancer. This model holds promise for counselling patients as to the potential risk for node positive disease which may impact surgical and adjuvant therapy recommendations.

Disclaimer

This material on this page is ©2024 American Society of Clinical Oncology, all rights reserved. Licensing available upon request. For more information, please contact licensing@asco.org

Abstract Details

Meeting

2022 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

Care Delivery and Regulatory Policy

Track

Care Delivery and Quality Care

Sub Track

Clinical Informatics/Advanced Algorithms/Machine Learning

Citation

J Clin Oncol 40, 2022 (suppl 16; abstr 1560)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2022.40.16_suppl.1560

Abstract #

1560

Poster Bd #

152

Abstract Disclosures