Royal Marsden Hospital, London, United Kingdom
Juliet Richman , Alistair E. Ring , Mitchell Dowsett , Ivana Sestak
Background: The Clinical Treatment Score at 5 years (CTS5) is a prognostic tool using clinicopathological data to estimate distant recurrence (DR) risk after 5 years of endocrine therapy for postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer. It was developed and validated in the ATAC and BIG 1-98 trials. Methods: The validity of CTS5 was tested in a retrospective cohort of unselected, non-trial patients diagnosed with early ER+ breast cancer at the Royal Marsden Hospital from 2000-2007 who were alive and distant recurrence-free at 5 years. The primary endpoint was time to late DR (5-10 years). Cox regression models were used to determine the prognostic value of CTS5 and to produce Kaplan-Meier curves with associated 10-year DR risks (%). Results: A total of 2428 women were included with a median follow-up of 9.34 years from diagnosis. The CTS5 was significantly prognostic for late DR in post- and premenopausal women (Table). Risk stratification by CTS5 of the postmenopausal cohort was comparable with the development cohort. 42.1% of postmenopausal women were categorised into the low risk group with a late DR risk of 4.9% and these women had significantly lower risk of late DR compared to those in the intermediate or high-risk groups (Table). Amongst the premenopausal cohort, 41% were categorised as low risk with a late DR risk of 4.9%. The prognostic effect of CTS5 was seen for chemotherapy treated (HR=2.26, 95% CI (1.68-3.03)) and untreated patients (HR=1.93, 95% (1.32-2.82)). Conclusions: CTS5 demonstrated clinical validity for predicting late DR within a large cohort of unselected, non-trial patients that included premenopausal women. The low risk cohort identified by the CTS5 represents a group of women whose risk of late DR is so low as to not warrant extended endocrine therapy to ten years.
HR for late distant recurrence (95% CI) | P-value | ||
---|---|---|---|
Postmenopausal (N=1662, DR=107) | CTS5 (continuous) | 1.95 (1.59-2.39) | <0.0001 |
CTS5 low | Reference | ||
CTS5 intermediate | 2.28 (1.32-3.93) | 0.003 | |
CTS5 high | 3.81 (2.27-6.41) | <0.0001 | |
Premenopausal (N=776, DR=51) | CTS5 (continuous) | 1.72 (1.23-2.40) | 0.001 |
CTS5 low | Reference | ||
CTS5 intermediate | 1.69 (0.84-3.51) | 0.16 | |
CTS5 high | 2.63 (1.29-5.34 | 0.008 |
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