Clinical validity of CTS5 for estimating risk of late recurrence in unselected, non-trial patients with early ER+ breast cancer.

Authors

null

Juliet Richman

Royal Marsden Hospital, London, United Kingdom

Juliet Richman , Alistair E. Ring , Mitchell Dowsett , Ivana Sestak

Organizations

Royal Marsden Hospital, London, United Kingdom, The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton, United Kingdom, The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom, Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom

Research Funding

Other Foundation

Background: The Clinical Treatment Score at 5 years (CTS5) is a prognostic tool using clinicopathological data to estimate distant recurrence (DR) risk after 5 years of endocrine therapy for postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer. It was developed and validated in the ATAC and BIG 1-98 trials. Methods: The validity of CTS5 was tested in a retrospective cohort of unselected, non-trial patients diagnosed with early ER+ breast cancer at the Royal Marsden Hospital from 2000-2007 who were alive and distant recurrence-free at 5 years. The primary endpoint was time to late DR (5-10 years). Cox regression models were used to determine the prognostic value of CTS5 and to produce Kaplan-Meier curves with associated 10-year DR risks (%). Results: A total of 2428 women were included with a median follow-up of 9.34 years from diagnosis. The CTS5 was significantly prognostic for late DR in post- and premenopausal women (Table). Risk stratification by CTS5 of the postmenopausal cohort was comparable with the development cohort. 42.1% of postmenopausal women were categorised into the low risk group with a late DR risk of 4.9% and these women had significantly lower risk of late DR compared to those in the intermediate or high-risk groups (Table). Amongst the premenopausal cohort, 41% were categorised as low risk with a late DR risk of 4.9%. The prognostic effect of CTS5 was seen for chemotherapy treated (HR=2.26, 95% CI (1.68-3.03)) and untreated patients (HR=1.93, 95% (1.32-2.82)). Conclusions: CTS5 demonstrated clinical validity for predicting late DR within a large cohort of unselected, non-trial patients that included premenopausal women. The low risk cohort identified by the CTS5 represents a group of women whose risk of late DR is so low as to not warrant extended endocrine therapy to ten years.

HR for late distant recurrence (95% CI)P-value
Postmenopausal
(N=1662, DR=107)
CTS5 (continuous)1.95 (1.59-2.39)<0.0001
CTS5 lowReference
CTS5 intermediate2.28 (1.32-3.93)0.003
CTS5 high3.81 (2.27-6.41)<0.0001
Premenopausal
(N=776, DR=51)
CTS5 (continuous)1.72 (1.23-2.40)0.001
CTS5 lowReference
CTS5 intermediate1.69 (0.84-3.51)0.16
CTS5 high2.63 (1.29-5.340.008

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2019 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Poster Discussion Session

Session Title

Breast Cancer—Local/Regional/Adjuvant

Track

Breast Cancer

Sub Track

Adjuvant Therapy

Citation

J Clin Oncol 37, 2019 (suppl; abstr 514)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2019.37.15_suppl.514

Abstract #

514

Poster Bd #

6

Abstract Disclosures