Utilizing cultural and ethnic variables in a survey to identify individuals at high risk for gastric cancer.

Authors

null

Ian Solsky

Department of Surgery, Montefiore Medical Center, New York, NY

Ian Solsky , Michael Parides , Clyde Schechter , Bruce D. Rapkin , Haejin In

Organizations

Department of Surgery, Montefiore Medical Center, New York, NY, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, New York, NY

Research Funding

NIH

Background: Absence of national US gastric cancer (GC) screening necessitates alternative methods like surveys to identify high-risk populations. Identification of high-risk persons may be enhanced by adding ethnic and cultural variables to more conventionally known risk factors for GC. Methods: Data from a prior case-control study of 40 GC cases and 100 controls were used. A "conventional" risk factor model (age, gender, family history of GC, body mass index, excessive salt intake, alcohol, smoking, blood type, H pylori) was compared to one incorporating ethnic and cultural variables (race, immigration, generation, cultural food at ages 15-18 years, acculturation and education) using model fit, sensitivity, specificity and expected positive predictive values (PPV). Stepwise regression was then used to create a model from this pool of variables. PPV was calculated using Bayes' Theorem applied to the baseline GC incidence in the US (7.2 per 100,000). Results: The "conventional" model required 14 questions and resulted in 25% sensitivity, 94% specificity, 28 per 100,000 PPV at the 70% probability cut-off, and AUC=0.871. The model incorporating ethnic and cultural variables required 38 questions and resulted in 48% sensitivity, 91% specificity, 38 per 100,000 PPV, and AUC =0.965. After eliminating items less predictive at p=0.2, age, gender, family history of GC, excessive salt intake, immigration, generation and race remained in the model. This model required 7 questions and resulted in 45% sensitivity, 96% specificity, 81 per 100,000 PPV and AUC=0.914. Conclusions: The model with the greatest ability to identify persons at risk of GC included ethnic and cultural variables. This model can be translated into a survey with few items that can serve as a highly scalable tool to identify high-risk individuals. Support: UG1CA189823

Final Model Items to Identify Individuals at Higher Risk of Gastric Cancer
1. Age
2. Gender
3. Race/ethnicity
4. Were you or your parents born in the US?
5. Did your mother, father, brother or sister ever have stomach cancer?
6. How many meals per week do you eat at restaurants or have take-out food?
7. How many meals per day do you eat processed meats (such as bacon, sausage, salami, ham)?

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2019 Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

Poster Session A: Cancers of the Esophagus and Stomach

Track

Cancers of the Esophagus and Stomach

Sub Track

Prevention, Diagnosis, and Screening

Citation

J Clin Oncol 37, 2019 (suppl 4; abstr 23)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2019.37.4_suppl.23

Abstract #

23

Poster Bd #

E13

Abstract Disclosures

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