Prognostication using molecular (mol) markers and clinicopathological (clpath) features in high-risk stage II/III colon cancer (CC).

Authors

Rodrigo Dienstmann, Sr

Rodrigo Dienstmann

Sage Bionetworks, Seattle, WA

Rodrigo Dienstmann , Sabine Tejpar , Frank A. Sinicrope , Amanda I. Phipps , Brian Bot , Stephen Henry Friend , Mauro Delorenzi , Polly A. Newcomb , Daniel J. Sargent , John M Jessup , Justin Guinney

Organizations

Sage Bionetworks, Seattle, WA, University of Leuven, KUL, Leuven, Belgium, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, University Hospital Vaud, Lausanne, Switzerland, Center for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, NY

Research Funding

Other

Background: AJCC v.7 staging and clpath covariates do not accurately predict outcome of CC patients (pts) eligible for adjuvant chemotherapy (adjCh). Mol markers, microsatellite instability (MSI) and mutations (mut) in BRAF and KRAS, may further improve prognostication in high-risk CC. Methods: Data from 4,796 stage II/III pts accrued to phase 3 trials PETACC3 and N0147 (train set) were used to construct Cox models for overall survival (OS). Variables included stage (pT, pN); clpath (# lymph nodes [LNs] positive, # LNs assessed, tumor grade, primary site, age, gender, adjCh); and mol (MSI, BRAF and KRAS mut). Final models (1. TNM; 2. TNM + mol; 3. TNM + clpath; 4. TNM + clpath + mol) were internally (train set) and externally (test set) validated on 597 stage II/III treated pts from non-clinical trial cohorts. Results: All examined traits were statistically significant for OS prediction (Table 1). We found significant interaction between site and MSI (p=.03) in multivariate models, with worse OS for MSI vs MSS left CC (HR 1.22) and better OS for right CC (HR 0.70). Models 1 to 4 associated with C-indices of 0.65, 0.68, 0.70, 0.72, respectively, in train set; and 0.68, 0.71, 0.73, 0.74 in test set. Corresponding time-dependent AUCs (5 years summary) were 0.54, 0.66, 0.73, 0.74 in train set; and 0.55, 0.68, 0.72, 0.73 in test set. Conclusions: Incorporation of mol markers (MSI, BRAF and KRAS mut) improves prognostic estimation in stage II/III CC pts treated with adjCh. We propose their prospective assessment in larger clinical cohorts, including untreated pts, and development of online calculators that could aid in prognostication (model-based staging) and patient/physician communication.

Multivariable OS Cox model in train set.

VariableHRCI95%
pT2 vs pT11.060.522.19
pT3 vs pT12.221.244.36
pT4 vs pT14.232.328.33
pN1 vs pN01.761.172.39
pN2 vs pN02.881.743.72
# LNs positive1.071.051.08
>=12 vs <12 LNs assessed0.700.590.82
High vs Low/Moderate grade1.291.091.51
Right vs left1.531.331.81
Age (years)1.011.001.02
Male vs female1.361.161.54
FOLFIRI vs 5FU1.010.801.30
FOLFOX vs 5FU0.700.590.92
MSI vs MSS0.720.570.90
BRAF mut vs wt1.801.482.28
KRAS mut vs wt1.451.261.72

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2016 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Poster Discussion Session

Session Title

Gastrointestinal (Colorectal) Cancer

Track

Gastrointestinal Cancer—Colorectal and Anal

Sub Track

Epidemiology/Outcomes

Citation

J Clin Oncol 34, 2016 (suppl; abstr 3519)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2016.34.15_suppl.3519

Abstract #

3519

Poster Bd #

216

Abstract Disclosures