Reproducibility, performance, and clinical utility of a genetic risk prediction model for prostate cancer in Japanese patients.

Authors

null

Shusuke Akamatsu

Department of Urology, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan

Shusuke Akamatsu , Ryo Takata , Atsushi Takahashi , Takahiro Inoue , Michiaki Kubo , Naoyuki Kamatani , Johji Inazawa , Tomoaki Fujioka , Tomonori Habuchi , Osamu Ogawa , Yusuke Nakamura , Hidewaki Nakagawa

Organizations

Department of Urology, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan, Department of Urology, Iwate Medical University School of Medicine, Morioka, Japan, Laboratory for Statistical Analysis, Center for Genomic Medicine, RIKEN, Yokohama, Japan, Laboratory for Genotyping Development, Center for Genomic Medicine, RIKEN, Yokohama, Japan, Department of Molecular Cytogenetics, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan, Department of Urology, Akita University Graduate School of Medicine, Akita, Japan, Institute of Medical Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, Laboratory for Biomarker Development, Center for Genomic Medicine, RIKEN, Tokyo, Japan

Research Funding

No funding sources reported
Background: Prostate specific antigen (PSA) is widely used as a diagnostic biomarker for prostate cancer (PC). However, due to its low predictive performance, many patients without PC suffer from the harms of unnecessary prostate needle biopsies. The present study aims to evaluate the reproducibility and performance of a genetic risk prediction model and estimate its utility as a diagnostic biomarker in a clinical scenario. Methods: We created a logistic regression model incorporating 16 SNPs that were significantly associated with PC in a genome-wide association study of the Japanese. The model was validated by two independent sets of samples comprising 3,294 cases and 6,281 controls. Various cut offs were evaluated to be used in a clinical scenario. Results: The area under a curve (AUC) of the model was 0.679, 0.655, and 0.661 for the samples used to create the model and those used for validation respectively. The AUC of the model was not significantly altered in samples with PSA 1-10 ng/ml. 24.2% and 9.7% of the patients had odds ratio <0.5 (low risk) or >2 (high risk) in the model, and assuming the overall positive rate of prostate needle biopsies to be 20% in PSA gray zone (PSA 2-10 ng/ml), the positive biopsy rates were 10.7% and 42.4% respectively for the two genetic risk groups. Conclusions: The genetic risk prediction model was highly reproducible, and its predictive performance was not influenced by PSA. The model could have a potential to affect clinical decision when it is applied to patients with gray-zone PSA, which should be confirmed in future clinical studies.

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2012 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Poster Discussion Session

Session Title

Tumor Biology

Track

Tumor Biology

Sub Track

Genomic and Epigenomic Biomarkers

Citation

J Clin Oncol 30, 2012 (suppl; abstr 10520)

DOI

10.1200/jco.2012.30.15_suppl.10520

Abstract #

10520

Poster Bd #

13

Abstract Disclosures

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