Background: Randomized clinical trials provide the best evidence for the effects of a new treatment. However, the use of a placebo control arm may present practical and ethical concerns for enrolled patients and treating providers. The CRC ARCAD global database includes a total of 1,673 individual patient data (IPD) treated with placebo plus best supportive care in a salvage-line setting for refractory mCRC. By using placebo IPD, we have proposed to construct a synthetic control arm for clinical trials (Yoshino T. et al., Nature Medicine 2023). Methods: From 40,889 IPD from 59 studies in ARCAD mCRC database, 723 placebo pts were selected from 4 placebo-controlled randomized studies in a salvage-line setting (CORRECT, RECOURSE, CONCUR and TERRA). We analyzed the impact of baseline patient characteristics and various prognostic factors on outcome in the placebo control. Results: The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence interval [CI]) were 0.52 (0.40-0.67) for the number of metastatic sites (1 vs 2+), 0.71 (0.59-0.84) for ECOG performance status (PS) (0 vs 1), 0.54 (0.45-0.66) for liver metastases (No vs Yes), 0.54 (0.40-0.71) for peritoneal metastases (No vs Yes), and 0.51 (0.38-0.70) for Royal Marsden Hospital (RMH) Score (consisting of albumin level, number of metastatic sites, and LDH level) (0-1 vs 2-3). Conclusions: Number of metastatic sites, ECOG PS, liver metastasis, peritoneal metastasis and RMH Score were significant prognostic factors in patients with mCRC receiving placebo in a salvage-line setting. Further prognostic factors should be investigated to increase the accuracy of the proposed synthetic control arm.

Prev Trt 1: FU, OX, IRI; Prev Trt 2: FU, OX, IRI; CET/PANI; Prev Trt 3: FU, OX, IRI, BEV; Prev Trt 4: FU, OX, IRI, CET/PANI, BEV.