Predicting survival and prognosis of postoperative breast cancer brain metastasis: A population-based retrospective analysis.

Authors

null

Nie Yan

Department of Breast and Thyroid Surgery, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China

Nie Yan , LU Zinan , Gang Sun

Organizations

Department of Breast and Thyroid Surgery, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China, Xinjiang Cancer Center/Key Laboratory of Oncology of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China, Urumqi, China, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Xinjiang Cancer Center, Key Laboratory of Oncology of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, China

Research Funding

Other Foundation
National Natural Science Foundation of China (82060520), and Tianshan Cedar Talent Training Project of Science and Technology Department of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2020XS14)

Background: The study aimed to construct a novel predictive clinical model to evaluate the overall survival (OS) of patients with postoperative brain metastasis of breast cancer (BCBM) and validate its effectiveness. Methods: From 2010 to 2020, a total of 310 female patients with BCBM were diagnosed in The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, and were randomly assigned to the training cohort and the validation cohort. Another 173 BCBM patients were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database as an external validation cohort. In the training cohort, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression model was used to determine the fundamental clinical predictive indicators and the nomogram was constructed to predict OS. The model capability was assessed using receiver operating characteristic, C-index, and calibration curves. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was performed to evaluate clinical effectiveness of the risk stratification system in the model. The accuracy and prediction capability of the model were verified using the validation and SEER cohorts. Results: LASSO Cox regression analysis revealed that lymph node metastasis, molecular subtype, tumor size, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and lung metastasis were statistically correlated with BCBM. The C-indexes of the survival nomogram in the training, validation, and SEER cohorts were 0.714, 0.710, and 0.670, respectively, which showed good prediction capability. The calibration curves demonstrated that the nomogram had great forecast precision, and a dynamic diagram was drawn to increase the maneuverability of the results. The R showed that the OS of low-risk patients was considerably better than that of high-risk patients (P<0.001). Conclusions: The nomogram prediction model constructed in this study has a good predictive value, which can effectively evaluate the survival rate of patients with postoperative BCBM.

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2023 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Publication Only

Session Title

Publication Only: Central Nervous System Tumors

Track

Central Nervous System Tumors

Sub Track

Brain Metastases

Citation

J Clin Oncol 41, 2023 (suppl 16; abstr e14011)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2023.41.16_suppl.e14011

Abstract #

e14011

Abstract Disclosures