Exploring the most appropriate primary endpoint of immune checkpoint inhibitors for previously treated advanced solid cancers.

Authors

null

Jie Zhu

Sichuan Cancer Center, Radiation Oncology Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Department of Radiation Oncology, Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610042, China, Sichuan, China

Jie Zhu , Jingqiu Li , Xiaoding Zhou , Binyang Gao , Hanlin Zhang , Lei Wu , Yi Wang , Jiabao Ma , Yan Tan , jin yi Lang , Qifeng Wang

Organizations

Sichuan Cancer Center, Radiation Oncology Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Department of Radiation Oncology, Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610042, China, Sichuan, China, Sichuan Cancer Center, Radiation Oncology Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Department of Radiation Oncology, Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science andTechnology of China, Chengdu 610042, China, Chengdu, China, Sichuan Cancer Center, Radiation Oncology Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Department of Radiation Oncology, Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610042, China, Chengdu, China, Department of Ultrasound, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China, Chengdu, China, Department of Dermatology, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China, Beijing, China, Radiation Oncology Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Department of Radiation Oncology, Sichuan Cancer Hospital and Institute, Sichuan Cancer Center, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China

Research Funding

Other Government Agency
This work was funded by the Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province (grant nos. 2019YFS0378).

Background: The drug approval and clinical use of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) were different among de novo and previously treated cancer patients. The purpose of this study is to investigate progression-free survival (PFS) and objective response rate (ORR) as earlier primary endpoints in previously treated advanced or metastatic solid cancers in immunotherapy era. Methods: This systematic review included phase 2 and 3 clinical trials in previously treated advanced or metastatic solid cancers receiving ICIs, through literature search on databases up to 2022. Quality control was performed, where studies with high risk of bias were excluded. Prediction models were first established using randomized controlled trials (RCTs), and then externally validated in the phase 2 non-randomized trials. Trial-level surrogacy analysis was conducted by correlating PFS hazard ratio (HR) and overall survival (OS) HR. Correlation analysis within checkpoint inhibitor arms was performed between ORR, 3-, 6-, and 9-month PFS rates and 12-month OS rate. The correlation was evaluated using the Pearson correlation coefficient r in weighted linear regression, with weight equal to patient size. High, medium strength, and low correlation was defined as r≥ 0.85, 0.7 < r< 0.85, and r≤ 0.7, respectively. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the consistency of predictive model by leaving trials of one cancer type out at a time. Results: A total of 64 phase 2 or 3 RCTs with 22,011 patients and 96 phase 2 non-randomized trials with 10,288 patients were included in modeling and validation, respectively. The most common primary endpoint in RCTs and non-randomized trials was OS (38 [59%]) and ORR (72 [75%]). The mostly used endpoint assessment criteria were RECIST v1.1 in both RCTs (59 [92%]) and non-randomized trials (88 [92%]). In trial-level surrogacy, PFS HR showed a low correlation with OS HR (r, 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.23–0.78). Within the checkpoint inhibitor treatment arms in RCTs, there was a high correlation between 6-month PFS and 12-month OS (r, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76–0.90), and 9-month PFS and 12-month OS (r, 0.85; 95% CI,0.80–0.90), with a medium strength correlation between 3-month PFS and 12-month OS (r, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.65–0.89) and a low correlation between ORR and 12-month OS (r, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.10–0.76). In external validation, when 6-month PFS was used to predict 12-month OS, there was a good calibration between actual and predicted 12-month OS. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated reasonable overall consistency. Conclusions: For phase 2 non-randomized, observational checkpoint inhibitor trials enrolling previously treated advanced or metastatic solid cancers, we recommended 6-month PFS rate as primary surrogate endpoint. For RCTs, gold standard endpoint OS should be persistently used and should not be replaced by earlier endpoints PFS or ORR.

Disclaimer

This material on this page is ©2024 American Society of Clinical Oncology, all rights reserved. Licensing available upon request. For more information, please contact licensing@asco.org

Abstract Details

Meeting

2023 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Publication Only

Session Title

Publication Only: Care Delivery and Regulatory Policy

Track

Care Delivery and Quality Care

Sub Track

Clinical Research Design

Citation

J Clin Oncol 41, 2023 (suppl 16; abstr e13601)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2023.41.16_suppl.e13601

Abstract #

e13601

Abstract Disclosures