Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN;
Sri Harsha Tella , Mikolaj Wieczorek , David Hodge , Amit Mahipal
Background: Accounting for 90% of primary liver cancers, HCC is the fourth-most common cause of cancer-related deaths in the United States. While the vaccination against hepatitis B and awareness on hepatitis C transmission possibly decreased the incidence of HCC in Eastern World, there was an uptrend in the HCC incidence the Western World over the past few years possibly related to metabolic causes. With this changing paradigm of hepatocellular carcinoma, it is important to estimate its future burden stratified based on the age, sex, and race, that could possibly help plan prevention, control, and treatment strategies for this cancer. Methods: We obtained histologically confirmed cases of HCC (ICD-0-3 Site: C220 and 228; codes: 8170-8175) from National Cancer Institute (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 18 registries between 2000 to 2017 and predicted the incidence between the years 2018-2029. We applied age-period-cohort models to estimate future HCC incidence rates (per 100, 000) and the estimated disease burden by multiplying incidence forecasts by corresponding US Census population projections. Results: A total of 76029 patients with HCC were included in the final analysis. The median age was 62 (range: 20-79) years with male predominance (70%). The overall observed age-adjusted incidence of HCC between 2000-2017 was 6.22, which is predicted to increase to 9.03 by 2029 with a predominant increase in incidence rate observed in the age groups 70-79 and White males. Interestingly, we noticed a progressive decrease in incidence rate in Asian cohort (both males and females) and Black males. Incidence rates by sub-groups based on the age, sex, and race are summarized in the Table. Conclusions: We predict an overall increased incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma over the next decade in the United States, predominantly in 70-79 years age group irrespective sex and race, with an exception to Asian cohort probably representing differential risk factors. Further epidemiological studies are needed to determine the etiological factors contributing to predicted increase in incidence rate.
Observed (2000-2017) | Predicted (2018-2029) | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Overall | 6.22 | 8.65 | +2.43 |
Male | 10.26 | 14.07 | +3.81 |
Female | 2.56 | 3.76 | +1.21 |
Male Asian | 20.18 | 15.29 | -4.89 |
Male White | 7.33 | 11.10 | +3.77 |
Male Black | 14.44 | 18.07 | +3.63 |
Female Asian | 5.80 | 3.89 | -1.91 |
Female White | 1.67 | 2.81 | +1.15 |
Female Black | 3.36 | 5.12 | +1.76 |
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