Background: Recent pancreatic cancer surveillance programs of high-risk individuals have reported improved outcomes. This study assessed to what extent outcomes of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in patients with a CDKN2A/p16 pathogenic variant (PV) diagnosed during surveillance are better as compared to PDAC patients diagnosed outside surveillance. Methods: In a propensity score matched cohort using data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry, we compared resectability, stage and survival between patients diagnosed in surveillance with non-surveillance PDAC patients. Survival analysis were repeated after adjustment for lead-time bias. Results: Between January 2000 and December 2020, 43 762 patients with PDAC were identified from the NCR. Thirty-one patients with PDAC in surveillance were matched in a 1:5 ratio with 155 non-surveillance patients based on age at diagnosis, sex, and year of diagnosis. In total, 71% of patients in surveillance, as compared to 16% of non-surveillance patients underwent a surgical resection (OR 14.03; 95% CI, 5.92 – 35.85). In surveillance, 39% of patients was diagnosed with stage I cancer, as compared to 6% of non-surveillance PDAC patients (OR 0.10; 95% CI, 0.04 – 0.21). Patients in surveillance had a better prognosis, reflected by a 3-year survival of 32.4% and a median overall survival (OS) of 26.8 months vs. 1.4% 3-year survival and 5.3 months median OS in non-surveillance patients (HR 0.22; 95% 0.14 – 0.36). After adjustment for lead time, PDAC diagnosis in surveillance remained strongly associated with improved survival. Conclusions: Surveillance for PDAC in carriers of a CDKN2A/p16 PV results in earlier detection, increased resectability and improved survival as compared to non-surveillance PDAC patients.

*n=4 with unknown stage in non-surveillance patients. CI=Confidence Interval. HR=Hazard Ratio. OR=Odds Ratio. OS=Overall Survival.