Modeling analysis of COVID 19-related delays in colorectal cancer screening on simulated clinical outcomes.

Authors

null

Lesley-Ann Miller-Wilson

Exact Sciences Corporation, Madison, WI

Lesley-Ann Miller-Wilson , Vahab Vahdat , Durado Brooks , Paul J. Limburg

Organizations

Exact Sciences Corporation, Madison, WI, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN

Research Funding

Pharmaceutical/Biotech Company

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening disruptions have been observed with the COVID-19 pandemic, putting patients at risk for more advanced-stage disease at the time of diagnosis. We estimated the impact of increased use of stool-based tests for screening during the COVID-19 pandemic on near-term clinical outcomes in a simulated United States (US) population. Methods: A previously developed budget impact model was adapted to assess the impact of increasing use of multi-target stool DNA [mt-sDNA] or fecal immunochemical [FIT] tests to offset the COVID-19 related disruption in colonoscopy screening. Adults, ages 50 – 75 years, at average risk for CRC were included over a 3-year time horizon (2020 – 2023) to explore the impact of increased screening for CRC using mt-sDNA or FIT, from the perspective of a US payer. Compared to the base case (S0; 85% colonoscopy and 15% non-invasive tests), the estimated number of missed CRCs and advanced adenomas (AAs) were determined for four COVID-19-affected screening scenarios: S1, 9 months of CRC screening at 50% capacity, followed by 21 months at 75% capacity; S2, S1 followed by increasing stool-based testing by an average of 10% over 3-years; S3, 18 months of CRC screening at 50% capacity, followed by 12 months of 75% capacity; and S4, S3 followed by increasing stool-based testing by an average of 13% over 3-years. Results: Increasing the proportional use of mt-sDNA, the detection of AAs improved by 6.0% (Scenario 2 versus 1) to 8.4% (Scenario 4 versus 3) and the number of missed CRCs decreased by 15.1% to 17.3% respectively. Increasing FIT utilization improved the detection of AAs by 3.3% (Scenario 2 versus 1) to 4.6% (Scenario 4 versus 3) and the number of missed CRCs decreased by 12.9% (Scenario 2 versus 1) to 14.9% (Scenario 4 versus 3). Across all scenarios, the number of AAs detected was higher for mt-sDNA than for FIT, and the number of missed CRCs was lower for mt-sDNA than for FIT. Conclusions: Using home-based stool tests for average-risk CRC screening can mitigate the consequences of reduced colonoscopy screening resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Use of mt-sDNA led to fewer missed CRCs and more AAs detected, compared to FIT.

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2022 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Publication Only

Session Title

Care Delivery and Regulatory Policy

Track

Care Delivery and Quality Care

Sub Track

Health and Regulatory Policy

Citation

J Clin Oncol 40, 2022 (suppl 16; abstr e13631)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2022.40.16_suppl.e13631

Abstract #

e13631

Abstract Disclosures

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