Development of a predictive model for emergency room utilization and unanticipated hospital admission in patients receiving cancer treatment for solid tumor malignancies.

Authors

null

Catherine Watson

Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Nashville, TN

Catherine Watson , Brooke Alhanti , Congwen Zhao , Laura J Havrilesky , Brittany Anne Davidson

Organizations

Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Nashville, TN, Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, NC, Division of Gynecologic Oncology, Duke Cancer Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC

Research Funding

Other

Background: Unanticipated healthcare resource utilization, in the form of either emergency department utilization (EDUs) or hospital admission (HA), is an indicator of lower quality of cancer care. The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive predictive model for emergency department utilization and hospital admission (HA) for patients with solid tumors who received chemotherapy within 30 days. Methods: We abstracted electronic health data on oncology encounters from all patients receiving systemic therapy chemotherapy for solid tumors from March 01, 2015 to August 21, 2020. Patients included in the cohort met the following criteria:1) Ages > = 18 years old 2) Diagnosed with any solid tumor (3) Had any oncology treatment plan related to their solid tumor diagnosis; 4) Received at least one chemotherapy during March 01, 2015 through August 21, 2020. We defined a primary composite outcome of emergency visit or unanticipated hospitalization within 30 days after the encounter. Patient information was abstracted. We developed a predictive model for the primary outcome using LASSO logistic regression modeling. To evaluate the model, we calculated the Area Under the Receiver Operator Characteristic (AUROC) and the calibration slope. Results: 12,917 unique patients with 134,641 encounters were included. Of these, 9100 (6.7%) of encounters were ED visits or hospitalizations. 714 patients (5.5%) had at least one ED visit or hospitalization within 30 days of treatment; patients at highest risk for this outcome included those with pancreatic cancer, lung cancer and ovarian/endometrial cancer (9.1%, 7.4% and 6.8% respectively). 38 variables were identified as contributing to the LASSO model. The top predictors, in order of importance, were fever, hypernatremia, hypotension and low albumin. The model’s AUC was 0.83, indicating good model sensitivity to outcome. Conclusions: Approximately 7% of healthcare encounters in patients undergoing treatment for solid malignancies were ED visits or hospitalizations. Identifying patients at highest risk for this outcome may prevent unnecessary resource utilization and optimize patient care during cancer treatment. The model developed in this study demonstrated good sensitivity and could be implemented in clinical practice to allow for preventive outpatient interventions. Work is ongoing to integrate this model into clinical care at our institution.

Hospitalizations or ED visit incidence by cancer site

Primary cancer site
Number of unique patients
ED visit or hospitalization within 30 days of treatment N(%)
Pancreatic
784
71 (9.1%)
Lung
2502
184 (7.4%)
Other
3602
258 (7.2%)
Ovarian/endometrial
915
63 (6.8%)
Urothelial
315
19 (6.0%)
Cervical/Vulvar
176
9 (5.1%)
Colon
848
25 (2.9%)
Prostate
1004
23 (2.3%)
Breast
2771
62 (2.2%)

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2022 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Publication Only

Session Title

Health Services Research and Quality Improvement

Track

Quality Care/Health Services Research

Sub Track

Real-World Data/Outcomes

Citation

J Clin Oncol 40, 2022 (suppl 16; abstr e18674)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2022.40.16_suppl.e18674

Abstract #

e18674

Abstract Disclosures