Simulation modeling as a tool to support clinical guidelines and care for breast cancer prevention and early detection in high-risk women.

Authors

null

Jinani Jayasekera

Lombardi Cancer Center MedStar Georgetown University Hospital, Washington, DC

Jinani Jayasekera , Kathryn P. Lowry , Jennifer M Yeh , Marc D Schwartz , Karen J Wernli , Claudine Isaacs , Allison W. Kurian , Natasha K. Stout

Organizations

Lombardi Cancer Center MedStar Georgetown University Hospital, Washington, DC, University of Washington, Seattle Cancer Care Alliance, Seattle, WA, Boston Children's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, Group Health Research Institute, Seattle, WA, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, MA

Research Funding

U.S. National Institutes of Health

Background: To evaluate the incremental short- and long-term benefits and harms of primary prevention with risk reducing medication in high-risk women receiving screening mammography. Methods: We adapted an established, validated Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) breast cancer discrete event microsimulation model developed to synthesize data the impact of using risk-reducing medication and annual mammography among women with a 3% or higher five-year risk of developing breast cancer. We also examined the effects of supplemental MRI. The model follows a simulated cohort of millions of US women from birth to death. We used large observational and clinical trial data to derive input parameters for cohort-specific birth rates, breast cancer risk, incidence and stage, screening performance, survival by age, stage, and subtype, treatment efficacy, and other cause mortality. Breast cancer risk was modeled based on family history, breast density, age and history of past breast biopsy. We compared two strategies, annual 3D mammography alone vs. annual 3D mammography and a 5-year course of risk reducing medication at various starting ages, and adding MRI to each approach. Outcomes included the benefits of risk-reducing drugs (avoiding breast cancer) and screening (stage, breast cancer death). Harms included drug side effects and screening false positives and overdiagnosis. Sensitivity analysis tested the impact of uncertainty in model inputs and assumptions on results. Results: Compared to mammography alone, adding risk reducing medication could decrease invasive breast cancer incidence by 30%, and breast cancer deaths by 30% (Table). However, due to reduction in breast cancer incidence, risk reducing medication could result in a 3% increase in false positive results; adding MRI increases benefits but also increases false-positive results. Benefits and harms of risk reducing medication and breast cancer screening strategies for women at high-risk of developing breast cancer. Conclusions: Risk-reducing mediation reduces the risk of hormone-receptor positive breast cancer, and combining this with mammography (and/or MRI) improves earlier detection. Additional work is ongoing to incorporate adverse effects of therapy. Simulation modeling can be used to provide individualized data to facilitate discussions about breast cancer prevention and early detection among high-risk women seen in clinical practice.



Screening Outcomes Per 100,000 Women Screened
Strategy
% Incremental Effects of Risk Reducing Medication
Annual 3D Mammography Screening
Annual 3D Mammography Screening + 5-years of Risk Reducing medication
Invasive breast cancer incidence
518
365
30% decrease
De-novo Stage IV diagnosis
15
11
27% decrease
Breast cancer deaths
109
76
30% decrease
False positives
6927
7145
3% increase
Overdiagnosis
33
34
-

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2022 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

Prevention, Risk Reduction, and Hereditary Cancer

Track

Prevention, Risk Reduction, and Genetics

Sub Track

Cancer Prevention

Citation

J Clin Oncol 40, 2022 (suppl 16; abstr 10525)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2022.40.16_suppl.10525

Abstract #

10525

Poster Bd #

403

Abstract Disclosures

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