Tom Baker Cancer Center, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
Vishal Navani , Matthew Scott Ernst , Connor Wells , Takeshi Yuasa , Kosuke Takemura , Frede Donskov , Naveen S. Basappa , Andrew Lachlan Schmidt , Sumanta K. Pal , Luis A Meza , Lori Wood , D. Scott Ernst , Bernadett Szabados , Rana R. McKay , Andrew James Weickhardt , Cristina Suárez , Anil Kapoor , Jae-Lyun Lee , Toni K. Choueiri , Daniel Yick Chin Heng
Background: Predictors of objective response to first-line (1L) immuno-oncology (IO) combination therapies remain elusive. We sought to characterise clinical variables and their association with investigator assessed best overall response. Methods: Using the IMDC, we retrospectively identified patients treated with 1L ipilimumab nivolumab (IPI-NIVO) or approved IO/vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) inhibitor combinations (IOVE). Patients were classified, per RECIST v1.1, as responders (complete or partial response (CR or PR)) or non-responders (stable or progressive disease (SD or PD)). Logistic regression was used to adjust for IMDC criteria. Results: Out of 1084 patients, 794 (73%) received IPI-NIVO and 290 (27%) received IOVE (axitinib+pembrolizumab, cabozantinib+nivolumab, axitinib+avelumab, lenvatinib+pembrolizumab). Favourable, intermediate and poor IMDC risk comprised 147 (16%), 517 (55%) and 272 (29%) respectively. Of the 898 patients with evaluable responses, 37 (4%) achieved a best response of CR, 343 (38%) PR, 315 (35%) SD and 203 (23%) PD. Corresponding median overall survival from time of 1L initiation was: not reached, 55.9, 48.1, and 13 months respectively (logrank p < 0.0001). In a multivariable model, lung metastases and cytoreductive nephrectomy (CN) (performed after diagnosis of metastatic disease and before 1L therapy) retained independent association with response, after adjustment for IMDC criteria. Factors not associated with response included (with univariable p values): gender (p = 0.58), age (p = 0.06), sarcomatoid histology (p = 0.99), smoking status (p = 0.39), liver (p = 0.63) and brain (p = 0.12) metastases. As in the VEGF monotherapy era, improved IMDC prognostic risk was associated with response. Results were similar when restricted to the IPI-NIVO cohort. Conclusions: Presence of lung metastases, CN and better IMDC risk group are associated with a higher probability of response to 1L immunotherapy combination regimens. Further work to identify reliable predictors of response to guide treatment selection and patient counselling is warranted.
Clinical Variables | Univariable | Final Multivariable Model* | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Odds Ratio | 95% CI | p Value | Odds Ratio | 95% CI | p Value | ||
Sex | Male vs Female | 1.09 | 0.81-1.48 | 0.580 | |||
Clear Cell | Clear Cell vs Non | 1.71 | 1.07-2.71 | 0.024 | |||
Sarcomatoid | Yes vs No | 1.00 | 0.68-1.46 | 0.995 | |||
Cytoreductive Nephrectomy | Yes vs No | 1.57 | 1.13-2.19 | 0.007 | 1.47 | 1.02-2.11 | 0.038 |
Lung Mets | Yes vs No | 1.71 | 1.26-2.31 | < 0.001 | 1.71 | 1.23-2.37 | 0.001 |
Bone Mets | Yes vs No | 0.75 | 0.56-0.99 | 0.049 | |||
Liver Mets | Yes vs No | 0.91 | 0.63-1.32 | 0.628 | |||
IMDC | Poor vs Fav | 0.45 | 0.29-0.71 | < 0.001 | 0.41 | 0.26-0.64 | < 0.001 |
IMDC | Poor vs Int | 0.65 | 0.46-0.90 | 0.010 | 0.62 | 0.44-0.87 | 0.006 |
*Only variables that retained significance in a multivariable model are shown.
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