Development and validation of a nomogram for distant metastasis in esophageal cancer based on radiomics and clinical factors.

Authors

null

Zhu Chao

Qingdao Center Hospital, Qingdao, China

Zhu Chao , Qingtao Qiu , Youxin Ji , Songping Wang , Jialin Ding , Linlin Wang

Organizations

Qingdao Center Hospital, Qingdao, China, Shandong cancer hospital, Jinan, China, Qingdao Central Hospital, Qingdao, China, Shandong Cancer Hospital, Jinan, China, Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, China

Research Funding

No funding received
None

Background: Distant metastasis with an incidence of 25% in esophageal cancer(EC) represents a poor prognosis. However, there was few study for prediction of distant metastasis in EC, due to unsatisfactory specificity of clinical factors and lack of reliable biomarkers. Methods: Two hundred and ninety-nine patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to a training cohort(n = 207) and a validation cohort(n = 92). Logistic univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to identify clinical independent predictive factors and construct a clinical nomogram. Radiomic features were extracted from contrast-enhanced CT performed before treatment, and Lasso regression was used to screen the optimal features, which were developed a radiomics signature subsequently. Four machine learning algorithms were used to establish radiomics models respectively based on the screened features. The joint nomogram incorporating radiomics signature and clinical independent predictors was developed by logical regression algorithm. All models were further validated by discrimination,caliberation, reclassification and clinical usefulness. Results: The joint nomogram had a better performance [AUC(95%CI): 0.827(0.742-0.912)] than clinical nomogram [AUC(95%CI): 0.731(0.626-0.836)]and radiomics predictive models[AUC(95%CI): 0.747(0.642-0.851),SVM algorithms]. Caliberation curve, and decision curve analysis also revealed joint nomogram outperformed the other models. Compared with the clinical nomogram, net reclassification Improvement(NRI) of the joint nomogram was improved by 0.114(0.075, 0.345),and integrated discrimination Improvement (IDI) was improved by 0.071(0.030-0.112),P= 0.001. Conclusions: We constructed and validated the first joint nomogram for distant metastasis in EC based on radiomics signature and clinical independent predictive factors, which could help clinicians to identify patients with high risk of distant metastasis.

Disclaimer

This material on this page is ©2024 American Society of Clinical Oncology, all rights reserved. Licensing available upon request. For more information, please contact licensing@asco.org

Abstract Details

Meeting

2021 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Publication Only

Session Title

Publication Only: Gastrointestinal Cancer—Gastroesophageal, Pancreatic, and Hepatobiliary

Track

Gastrointestinal Cancer—Gastroesophageal, Pancreatic, and Hepatobiliary

Sub Track

Esophageal or Gastric Cancer

Citation

J Clin Oncol 39, 2021 (suppl 15; abstr e16071)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2021.39.15_suppl.e16071

Abstract #

e16071

Abstract Disclosures

Similar Abstracts

Abstract

2021 Genitourinary Cancers Symposium

Adverse pathology as a predictor of distant metastasis and prostate cancer mortality with 20-year follow up.

First Author: Michael Austin Brooks

First Author: Badr Id Said