The PROVIEW+ tool: Developing and validating a tool to predict risk of poor performance status and severe symptoms in cancer patients over time.

Authors

null

Hsien Seow

McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada

Hsien Seow , Rinku Sutradhar , Lisa Catherine Barbera , Peter Tanuseputro , Dawn Guthrie , Sarina Isenberg , Rosalyn A. Juergens , Jeffrey A. Myers , Melissa C. Brouwers , Semra Tibebu , Craig Earle

Organizations

McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada, ICES, Toronto, ON, Canada, Odette Cancer Centre, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, ON, Canada, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON, Canada, Temmy Latner Centre for Palliative Care, Toronto, ON, Canada, Juravinski Cancer Centre, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada, Trillium Health Partners, Mississauga, ON, Canada, Cancer Care Ontario, Hamilton, ON, Canada, Ontario Institute for Cancer Research, Toronto, ON, Canada

Research Funding

Other Government Agency
Canadian Institutes for Health Research

Background: There are numerous predictive cancer tools that focus on survival. However, no tools predict risk of low performance status or severe symptoms, which are important for patient decision-making and early integration of palliative care. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a model for all cancer types that predicts the risk for having low performance status and severe symptoms. Methods: A retrospective, population-based, predictive study using linked administrative data from cancer patients from 2008-2015 in Ontario, Canada. Patients were randomly selected for model derivation (60%) and validation (40%). The derivation cohort was used to develop a multivariable logistic regression model to predict the risk of having the reported outcomes in the subsequent 6 months. Model performance was assessed using discrimination and calibration plots. The main outcome was low performance status using the Palliative Performance Scale. Secondary outcomes included severe pain, dyspnea, well-being, and depression using the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System. Outcomes were recalculated after each of 4 annual survivor marks. Results: We identified 255,494 cancer patients (57% female; median age of 64; common cancers were breast (24%) and lung (13%)). At diagnosis, the risk of having low performance status, severe pain, well-being, dyspnea, and depression in 6-months is 1%, 3%, 6%, 13% and 4%, respectively for the reference case (i.e. male, lung cancer, stage I, no symptoms). Generally these covariates increased the outcome risk by > 10% across all models: obstructive lung disease, dementia, diabetes; radiation treatment; hospital admission; high pain; depression; Palliative Performance Scale score of 60-10; issues with appetite; or homecare. Model discrimination was high across all models. Conclusions: The model accurately predicted changing cancer risk for low performance status and severe symptoms over time. Providing accurate predictions of future performance status and symptom severity can support decision-making and earlier initiation of palliative care, even alongside disease modifying therapies.

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2021 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

Symptoms and Survivorship

Track

Symptom Science and Palliative Care

Sub Track

Palliative Care and Symptom Management

Citation

J Clin Oncol 39, 2021 (suppl 15; abstr 12095)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2021.39.15_suppl.12095

Abstract #

12095

Poster Bd #

Online Only

Abstract Disclosures

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