UC-San Diego Health, San Diego, CA
Juan Javier-Desloges , Tyler Nelson , Patrick Travis Courtney , Rishi Deka , Vinit Nalawade , Loren K. Mell , James Don Murphy , J Kellogg Parsons , Brent S. Rose
Background: The utility of prostate-specific antigen velocity (PSAV) to predict clinical progression in patients with localized prostate cancer (PC) on active surveillance remains unclear, and in African American (AA) patients on active surveillance remains undefined. Methods: We performed a cohort analysis using the national US Veterans Affairs Informatics and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI). We identified 5296 patients diagnosed with localized prostate cancer (PC) from 2001 to 2015 managed with active surveillance. Follow-up extended through March 31, 2020. We defined low-risk PC as ISUP grade group 1 (GG1) clinical tumor stage ≤ 2A, and PSA level ≤ 10 ng/dl; and active surveillance as no definitive treatment within the first year after diagnosis with at least one additional staging biopsy after diagnostic biopsy. The primary outcome was grade progression on repeat biopsy/prostatectomy defined as GG2 or GG3. The secondary outcome was incident metastases. Cumulative incidence functions and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to test associations between PSAV and outcomes. Results: The final cohort included 3919 Non-Hispanic White patients (NHW) (74%) and 1377 AA (26%) patients. GG2 progression on repeat biopsy occurred in 2062 (38.9%) patients, with a cumulative incidence (CI) of 43.2 % and GG3 progression occurred in 728 (13.7%) patients, with a CI of 18% at seven years. Fifty-four (0.8%) patients developed metastases, with a CI of 1.4% at ten years. In unadjusted analyses, compared to NHW patients, AA patients were significantly more likely to progress to GG2 (52.8% vs 39.8%, p<0.001), and GG3 (22.2% vs 16.8%, p=0.01). On MV analysis, PSAV was a significant predictor of GG2 (HR 1.32 [1.26-1.39]), GG3 (1.5 [1.40-1.62]), and metastases (1.38 [1.10-1.74]). A significant interaction term between race and PSAV indicated the need for different PSAV thresholds for AA and NHW men. Based on maximally selected rank statistics, optimal thresholds for separating outcomes were different in AA vs NHW men. (0.44 vs. 1.18). Conclusions: In this analysis of PSAV in low-risk prostate cancer patients on AS—to our knowledge, the largest to date for AA patients—we observed that PSAV is a robust predictor of upgrading on restaging biopsy as well as metastasis. Compared to NHW patients, AA patients were more likely to progress at lower values of PSAV and therefore merit close follow-up on active surveillance protocols.
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