Beyond Sedlis: A novel, histology-based nomogram for predicting recurrence risk and need for adjuvant radiation in cervical cancer—A NRG/GOG ancillary analysis.

Authors

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Kimberly Levinson

The Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD

Kimberly Levinson , Anna Beavis , Christopher Purdy , Anne Rositch , Akila Viswanathan , Aaron Howard Wolfson , Michael Greg Kelly , Krishnansu Tewari , Leah McNally , Saketh R Guntupalli , Omar Ragab , Yi-Chun Lee , David S. Miller , Warner King Huh , Kelly Jeanes Wilkinson , Nicola M. Spirtos , Linda Van Le , Yovanni Casablanca , Laura L. Holman , Amanda Nickles Fader

Organizations

The Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, NRG Oncology, Buffalo, NY, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, Department of Radiation Oncology, Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center, Miami, FL, Wake Forest Baptist Med Ctr, Winston-Salem, NC, University of California Irvine, Orange, CA, Duke Cancer Institute, Durham, NC, University of Colorado Anschutz, Aurora, CO, Keck School of Medicine of USC, Los Angeles, CA, SUNY Health Science Center at Brooklyn, Brooklyn, NY, The University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson, MS, Women's Cancer Center, Las Vegas, NV, University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC, Wright Patterson Med Ctr, Beavercreek, OH, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD

Research Funding

No funding received
None

Background: In GOG 49, factors associated with a 3-year, 30% recurrence risk in squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix (SCC) after surgery alone were defined. These "intermediate" risk factors [tumor size (TS), depth of tumor invasion (DOI), and lymphvascular space invasion (LVSI)] were then studied in GOG 92, which demonstrated the utility of treating patients (pts) with ≥2 intermediate risk factors with adjuvant radiation (RT), Sedlis Criteria. However, pts with < 30% recurrence risk were not eligible and few pts with adenocarcinoma (AC) were included. Our study purpose was 1) to evaluate recurrence risk factors for AC vs SCC, and 2) to define contemporary nomograms for adjuvant treatment in pts with both histologies. Methods: We performed an ancillary analysis of GOG 49, 92, and 141, and included Stage I pts who received no neoadjuvant/adjuvant therapy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were created separately for AC and SCC to evaluate independent risk factors for recurrence. Model accuracy was tested with ROC curves. Prognostic nomograms were generated for 2-year recurrence risk for AC and SCC. Results: We identified 715 with SCC and 105 pts with AC; 142 with SCC (19.9%) and 18 with AC 17.1%) recurred. For SCC, factors associated independently with recurrence were: LVSI [HR 1.58 (CI 1.12-2.22)], DOI [middle 1/3, HR 4.31 (CI 1.81-10.26); deep 1/3, HR 7.05 (CI 2.99-16.64)] and TS [≥4cm HR 2.67 (CI 1.67-4.29)]. In contrast, for AC, only TS ≥4cm was independently associated with recurrence [HR 4.69 (CI 1.25-17.63)]. At 3 years, ROC curves for these models predicted recurrence with 76% and 75% accuracy for SCC and AC, respectively. Utilizing a nomogram generated from these models, for SCC, DOI had the greatest impact on recurrence, with mid 1/3 conferring an 18% risk and deep 1/3 a 32% risk, while LVSI and TS increased risk by 4-10%, respectively. In contrast, for AC, TS alone had the greatest impact on recurrence risk with TS 2-4cm conferring a 20% risk over 3 years and TS ≥4cm, a 28% risk. Conclusions: Our nomogram differs from the Sedlis Criteria in demonstrating that single, as well as a combination of risk factors predict substantial 3-year recurrence rates in Stage I cervical cancer. Furthermore, these factors differ by AC and SCC subtypes, suggesting that distinct, histology-specific nomograms may have greater utility in identifying pts who will most benefit from adjuvant therapy.

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2020 ASCO Virtual Scientific Program

Session Type

Poster Discussion Session

Session Title

Gynecologic Cancer

Track

Gynecologic Cancer

Sub Track

Cervical Cancer

Citation

J Clin Oncol 38: 2020 (suppl; abstr 6019)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2020.38.15_suppl.6019

Abstract #

6019

Poster Bd #

190

Abstract Disclosures