Forecasting global essential childhood cancer drug need and cost: An innovative model-based approach.

Authors

Avram Denburg

Avram Denburg

Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada

Avram Denburg , Brianna Empringham , Terence Hughes , Anita K. Wagner , Zachary J. Ward , Jennifer Yeh , Sumit Gupta , A. Lindsay Frazier

Organizations

Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, MA, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, Boston Children's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, Division of Haematology/Oncology, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA

Research Funding

No funding received
None

Background: Childhood cancer outcomes in low-middle income countries (LMICs) have not kept pace with advances in care and survival in high income countries (HICs). A contributing factor to this survival gap is unreliable access to essential cancer drugs. Lack of data on the aggregate need and cost of essential cancer drugs has hampered rational planning and acquisition in many LMICs. Methods: We created a pediatric-specific tool (FORxECAST) that estimates drug quantity and cost for 18 pediatric cancers, customizable to region, regimen, cancer stage distribution, and drug price. We used adapted treatment regimens developed by the International Society of Pediatric Oncology (SIOP), supplemented with input from disease experts, to model treatment approaches reflective of health-system capabilities. FORxECAST incorporates incidence data generated through microsimulation estimates of both diagnosed and undiagnosed (total) cases. Results: We created a pediatric-specific tool (FORxECAST) that estimates drug quantity and cost for 18 pediatric cancers, customizable to region, regimen, cancer stage distribution, and drug price. We used adapted treatment regimens developed by the International Society of Pediatric Oncology (SIOP), supplemented with input from disease experts, to model treatment approaches reflective of health-system capabilities. FORxECAST incorporates incidence data generated through microsimulation estimates of both diagnosed and undiagnosed (total) cases. Conclusions: Our results enable evidence-based forecasting of childhood cancer drug need and cost to inform health system planning in a wide range of countries. The model is adaptable to setting, diagnosis, and treatment approach, allowing decision-makers to generate results specific to their context and needs. Global estimates of essential childhood cancer drug need and cost demonstrate the comparatively small amount of aggregate resources required to treat all cases worldwide, and can help advance innovative procurement strategies with regional and international scale that drive global improvements in childhood cancer drug access.

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2020 ASCO Virtual Scientific Program

Session Type

Publication Only

Session Title

Publication Only: Health Services Research and Quality Improvement

Track

Quality Care/Health Services Research

Sub Track

Access to Care

Citation

J Clin Oncol 38: 2020 (suppl; abstr e19078)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2020.38.15_suppl.e19078

Abstract #

e19078

Abstract Disclosures

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