Predicting the risk of VISIT emergency department (ED) in lung cancer patients using machine learning.

Authors

null

Pablo Rodriguez-Brazzarola

Grupo de Inteligencia Computacional en Biomedicina, ETSI Ingeniería Informática, Universidad de Málaga, Málaga, Spain

Pablo Rodriguez-Brazzarola , Nuria Ribelles , Jose Manuel Jerez , Jose Trigo , Manuel Cobo , Inmaculada Ramos Garcia , M Vanesa Gutierrez Calderon , Jose Luis Subirats , Ana María Galeote Miguel , Hector Mesa , Laura Galvez Carvajal , Leo Franco , Begoña Jimenez Rodriguez , Ana Godoy , Sofía Ruíz , Andres Mesas , Marcos Iglesias Campos , Irene López , Antonio Rueda Dominguez , Emilio Alba

Organizations

Grupo de Inteligencia Computacional en Biomedicina, ETSI Ingeniería Informática, Universidad de Málaga, Málaga, Spain, UGC Oncología Intercentros, Hospitales Universitarios Regional y Virgen de la Victoria de Malaga, Instituto de Investigaciones Biomédicas de Málaga (IBIMA), Málaga, Spain, Hospital Universitario Regional y Virgen de la Victoria, IBIMA, Málaga, Spain, Hospital Regional Universitario de Málaga, Málaga, Spain, UGC Oncología Intercentros, Hospitales Universitarios Regional y Virgen de la Victoria de Málaga, Instituto de Investigaciones Biomédicas de Málaga (IBIMA), Málaga, Spain

Research Funding

Pharmaceutical/Biotech Company
Pfizer

Background: Lung cancer patients commonly need unplanned visits to ED. Many of these visits could be potentially avoidable if it were possible to identify patients at risk when the previous scheduled visit takes place. At that moment, it would be possible to perform elective actions to manage patients at risk to consult the ED in the near future. Methods: Unplanned visits of patients in active cancer therapy (i.e. chemo or immunotherapy) are attended in our own ED facilities. Our Electronic Health Record (EHR) includes specific modules for first visit, scheduled visits and unplanned visits. Lung cancer patients with at least two visits were eligible. The event of interest was patient visit to ED within 21 or 28 days (d) from previous visit. Free text data collected in the three modules were obtained from EHR in order to generate a feature vector composed of the word frequencies for each visit. We evaluate five different machine learning algorithms to predict the event of interest. Area under the ROC curve (AUC), F1 (harmonic mean of precision and recall), True Positive Rate (TPR) and True Negative Rate (TNR) were assessed using 10-fold cross validation. Results: 2,682 lung cancer patients treated between March 2009 and October 2019 were included from which 819 patients were attended at ED. There were 2,237 first visits, 47,465 scheduled visits (per patient: range 1-174; median 12) and 2,125 unplanned visits (per patient: range 1-20; median 2). Mean age at diagnosis was 64 years. The majority of patients had late stage disease (34.24 % III, 51.56 % IV). The Adaptive Boosting Model yields the best results for both 21 d or 28 d prediction. Conclusions: Using unstructured data from real-world EHR enables the possibility to build an accurate predictive model of unplanned visit to an ED within the 21 or 28 following d after a scheduled visit. Such utility would be very useful in order to prevent ED visits related with cancer symptoms and to improve patients care.

AUC (95%CI)F1 (95%CI)TPR (95%CI)TPN (95%CI)
21 d0.75
(0.74-0.76)
0.77
(0.773-0.779)
74.3%
(74.2%-74.4%)
67.9%
(64.8%-65%)
28 d0.75
(0.74-0.76)
0.77
(0.775-0.776)
73.7%
(73.6%-73.8%)
65%
(64.9%-65.1%)

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2020 ASCO Virtual Scientific Program

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

Care Delivery and Regulatory Policy

Track

Care Delivery and Quality Care

Sub Track

Clinical Informatics/Advanced Algorithms/Machine Learning

Citation

J Clin Oncol 38: 2020 (suppl; abstr 2042)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2020.38.15_suppl.2042

Abstract #

2042

Poster Bd #

34

Abstract Disclosures

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