Grupo de Inteligencia Computacional en Biomedicina, ETSI Ingeniería Informática, Universidad de Málaga, Málaga, Spain
Pablo Rodriguez-Brazzarola , Nuria Ribelles , Jose Manuel Jerez , Jose Trigo , Manuel Cobo , Inmaculada Ramos Garcia , M Vanesa Gutierrez Calderon , Jose Luis Subirats , Ana María Galeote Miguel , Hector Mesa , Laura Galvez Carvajal , Leo Franco , Begoña Jimenez Rodriguez , Ana Godoy , Sofía Ruíz , Andres Mesas , Marcos Iglesias Campos , Irene López , Antonio Rueda Dominguez , Emilio Alba
Background: Lung cancer patients commonly need unplanned visits to ED. Many of these visits could be potentially avoidable if it were possible to identify patients at risk when the previous scheduled visit takes place. At that moment, it would be possible to perform elective actions to manage patients at risk to consult the ED in the near future. Methods: Unplanned visits of patients in active cancer therapy (i.e. chemo or immunotherapy) are attended in our own ED facilities. Our Electronic Health Record (EHR) includes specific modules for first visit, scheduled visits and unplanned visits. Lung cancer patients with at least two visits were eligible. The event of interest was patient visit to ED within 21 or 28 days (d) from previous visit. Free text data collected in the three modules were obtained from EHR in order to generate a feature vector composed of the word frequencies for each visit. We evaluate five different machine learning algorithms to predict the event of interest. Area under the ROC curve (AUC), F1 (harmonic mean of precision and recall), True Positive Rate (TPR) and True Negative Rate (TNR) were assessed using 10-fold cross validation. Results: 2,682 lung cancer patients treated between March 2009 and October 2019 were included from which 819 patients were attended at ED. There were 2,237 first visits, 47,465 scheduled visits (per patient: range 1-174; median 12) and 2,125 unplanned visits (per patient: range 1-20; median 2). Mean age at diagnosis was 64 years. The majority of patients had late stage disease (34.24 % III, 51.56 % IV). The Adaptive Boosting Model yields the best results for both 21 d or 28 d prediction. Conclusions: Using unstructured data from real-world EHR enables the possibility to build an accurate predictive model of unplanned visit to an ED within the 21 or 28 following d after a scheduled visit. Such utility would be very useful in order to prevent ED visits related with cancer symptoms and to improve patients care.
AUC (95%CI) | F1 (95%CI) | TPR (95%CI) | TPN (95%CI) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
21 d | 0.75 (0.74-0.76) | 0.77 (0.773-0.779) | 74.3% (74.2%-74.4%) | 67.9% (64.8%-65%) |
28 d | 0.75 (0.74-0.76) | 0.77 (0.775-0.776) | 73.7% (73.6%-73.8%) | 65% (64.9%-65.1%) |
Disclaimer
This material on this page is ©2024 American Society of Clinical Oncology, all rights reserved. Licensing available upon request. For more information, please contact licensing@asco.org
Abstract Disclosures
2023 ASCO Annual Meeting
First Author: Hossein Honarvar
2023 ASCO Annual Meeting
First Author: Brittany Avin McKelvey
2023 ASCO Annual Meeting
First Author: Yue Yu
2023 ASCO Annual Meeting
First Author: Smita Agrawal