Real-world prognostic model for overall survival (OS) in patients (pts) with advanced urothelial cancer (aUC) treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI).

Authors

Ali Khaki

Ali Raza Khaki

University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Ali Raza Khaki , Leonidas Nikolaos Diamantopoulos , Natalie J. Miller , Mehmet Asim Bilen , Victor Sacristan Santos , Rafael Morales-Barrera , Michael Edward Devitt , Ariel Ann Nelson , Evan Shreck , Hussein Assi , Roubini Zakopoulou , Alejo Rodriguez-Vida , Mark Lythgoe , Alexandra Drakaki , Monika Joshi , Pedro Isaacsson Velho , Lucia Alonso , Matt D. Galsky , Guru Sonpavde , Petros Grivas

Organizations

University of Washington, Seattle, WA, Department of Hematology and Medical Oncology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, Complejo Hospitalario Universitario, A Coruña, UT, Spain, Vall d'Hebron Institute, Barcelona, Spain, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, Medical College of Wisconsin, Cleveland, OH, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY, Albany Medical Center, Albany, NY, Hellenic Cooperative Oncology Group (HeCOG), Athens, Greece, Hospital Del Mar, Barcelona, Spain, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, Penn State Health Milton S. Hershey Medical Center, Hershey, PA, Instituto do Câncer do Estado de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, Hospital National Marques Valdecilla, Santander, Spain, Tisch Cancer Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, Dana Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA, University of Washington, School of Medicine, Seattle, WA

Research Funding

U.S. National Institutes of Health
U.S. National Institutes of Health

Background: While ICI prolong OS after platinum chemotherapy in aUC, outcomes vary based on clinical confounders. We aimed to develop a prognostic model in pts receiving ICI in a non-clinical trial setting. Methods: We used a hypothesis driven approach of clinician selected covariates to develop a new prognostic model. Data source was a retrospective cohort of pts treated with ICI at 19 institutions. Demographics, clinicopathologic data, treatment patterns, and OS were collected. Univariate (UVA) Cox regression was done on 24 variables hypothesized to be associated with OS. Variables were retained for multivariate analysis (MVA) if they had statistical relationship with OS (p<0.2) and were included in the final model if p<0.05 on MVA. Each retained covariate was assigned 1 point in the final prognostic model. Stratified median OS and c-statistic were calculated. Results: 415 pts with mean age 69, 26% female, 66% ever smokers, 69% pure UC, 15% upper tract UC, 54% with prior extirpative surgery, Bellmunt risk factors 17%, 51%, 28% and 4% for 0, 1, 2, 3, respectively were included. Non-White race, ECOG PS≥1, albumin<3.5g/dL (lower limit of normal), hemoglobin<10g/dL, absolute neutrophil count (ANC)>8x106/ul (upper limit of normal), and presence of bone or liver metastases (mets) were all associated with worse OS on UVA Cox regression; albumin<3.5 g/dL, ANC>8x106/uL, presence of bone or liver mets remained significant on MVA and were included in the prognostic model. Median (m)OS by new model and Bellmunt are shown in table. C-statistic of the new model was 0.67. Conclusions: Albumin<3.5 g/dL, ANC >8x106/ul, presence of bone or liver mets were negative prognostic factors in pts with aUC treated with ICI. This has comparable features to recently reported 5-factor model using clinical trial data, including LDH (unavailable in our cohort). External validation is being pursued. The proposed model may be used for prognostication, clinical trial design, eligibility and stratification.

ScoreNew model
Bellmunt
NmOS mo (95% CI)NmOS mo (95% CI)
018819 (14-22)6923 (17-NR)
11408 (6-10)21211 (9-14)
2614 (2-9)1177 (4-9)
≥3262 (1-3)173 (2-6)
c-statistic0.670.62

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2020 Genitourinary Cancers Symposium

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

Poster Session B: Prostate Cancer; Urothelial Carcinoma; Penile, Urethral, Testicular, and Adrenal Cancers

Track

Urothelial Carcinoma,Adrenal Cancer,Penile Cancer,Prostate Cancer - Advanced,Prostate Cancer - Localized,Testicular Cancer,Urethral Cancer

Sub Track

Patient-Reported Outcomes and Real-World Evidence

Citation

J Clin Oncol 38, 2020 (suppl 6; abstr 447)

Abstract #

447

Poster Bd #

F14

Abstract Disclosures