The potential in artificial intelligence-driven radiomic signature to predict survival in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer treated with cetuximab-based therapy.

Authors

null

Laurent Dercle

Department of Radiology, Columbia University Medical Center; New York-Presbyterian Hospital, New York, NY

Laurent Dercle , Lin Lu , Lawrence Howard Schwartz , Min Qian , Sabine Tejpar , Peter Eggleton , Binsheng Zhao , Hubert Piessevaux

Organizations

Department of Radiology, Columbia University Medical Center; New York-Presbyterian Hospital, New York, NY, Columbia University Medical Center/New York Presbyterian Hospital, New York, NY, Department of Biostatistics, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY, Molecular Digestive Oncology, University Hospitals Leuven and KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium, Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany, Department of Hepato-Gastroenterology, Cliniques Universitaires Saint-Luc, UCLouvain, Brussels, Belgium

Research Funding

Pharmaceutical/Biotech Company
Merck KgaA, Other Foundation

Background: This analysis was undertaken to forecast survival and enhance treatment decisions for patients (pts) with colorectal cancer (CRC) with liver metastases sensitive to folinic acid, fluorouracil and irinotecan (FOLFIRI) alone [F] or in combination with cetuximab [FC] using simple quantitative radiomic changes between CT scans at baseline and 8 weeks. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 667 pts with KRAS-unselected metastatic CRC in NCT00154102 treated with F and FC. CT quality was classified as high (HQ) or standard (SQ), and four data sets were created and named by treatment quality. Pts were randomly assigned 1:2 to training or validation sets: FCHQ, 38/78 pts; FCSQ, 62/124 pts; FHQ, 51/78 pts; FSQ, 78/158 pts. A machine-learning signature was trained using data set FCHQ to classify pts as treatment-sensitive or treatment-insensitive using just 4 of 3,499 potential radiomic imaging features. Performance was calibrated/validated using ROC curves. Hazard ratios (HRs) and Cox regression models were used to evaluate association with overall survival (OS). Results: The signature used decrease in tumor heterogeneity plus boundary infiltration to successfully predict sensitivity to FC (FCHQ: AUC, 0.80; FCSQ: AUC, 0.72) but failed with non-cetuximab regimens (FHQ: AUC, 0.59; FSQ: AUC, 0.55). The radiomic signature outperformed existing biomarkers (KRAS mutational status and tumor shrinkage by RECIST 1.1) for sensitivity to cetuximab-based therapy and was strongly associated with OS in the cetuximab-containing sets FCHQ (HR, 44.3; p = 0.0001) and FCSQ (HR, 6.5; p = 0.005). Conclusions: This signature, derived from simple radiomic analysis of tumor imaging phenotype using only standard-of-care CT scans, appeared to be treatment-specific and was superior to all tested prognostic biomarkers. The signature provided early prediction of sensitivity and survival and could be used to guide treatment continuation decisions.

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2020 Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

Poster Session C: Anal and Colorectal Cancer

Track

Colorectal Cancer,Anal Cancer

Sub Track

Other

Citation

J Clin Oncol 38, 2020 (suppl 4; abstr 247)

Abstract #

247

Poster Bd #

M3

Abstract Disclosures