The potential cost-effectiveness of first-line immunotherapy + chemotherapy for advanced non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Authors

Joshua Roth

Joshua A. Roth

Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA

Joshua A. Roth , Trung Nguyen , Bernardo H. L. Goulart

Organizations

Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA

Research Funding

Other

Background: In May of 2017, the U.S. FDA granted accelerated approval for pembrolizumab + pemetrexed & carboplatin for previously untreated advanced non-squamous NSCLC—the only first-line indication for immunotherapy + chemotherapy (‘IO+Chemo’) in NSCLC. Preliminary value estimates are needed to inform decision making. Using data from the Phase II KEYNOTE-021 trial, we estimated the potential value of IO+Chemo from a U.S. payer perspective. Methods: We created a partitioned survival decision model to assess the cost-effectiveness of IO+Chemo vs. pemetrexed & carboplatin (‘Chemo’) in Stage IIIB/IV non-squamous NSCLC. One year overall (OS) and progression-free survival came from KEYNOTE-021 and were extrapolated with parametric curves. The base case used a Weibull curve for long-term OS (6% 5 year OS), and scenarios used Log-Logistic (21% 5 year OS) and Gompertz ( < 1% 5 year OS) curves to model more and less durable responses. First- and second-line therapy resource use and Grade 3/4 adverse event rates were derived from KEYNOTE-021. We applied 2017 Average Sales Price for drugs and 2017 CMS reimbursement for procedures. Utilities were derived from the literature. We estimated life years (LY), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs over a lifetime horizon. Outcomes were discounted at 3% per year. Results: In the base case, IO+Chemo and Chemo resulted in 2.23 and 1.43 LYs, 1.20 and 0.77 QALYs, and $328,640 and $147,418 cost, respectively. The IO+Chemo costs per LY and QALY gained were $227,149 and $422,313, respectively. The cost per QALY varied greatly in OS scenarios (See Table), showing the strong influence of durable responses on value. Conclusions: In the first cost-effectiveness analysis of frontline IO+chemo in advanced non-squamous NSCLC, we found that pembrolizumab-based therapy is unlikely to be cost-effective (ie < $150,000 per QALY) regardless of long-term OS assumptions. Future studies should reassess IO+chemo value with Phase III KEYNOTE-189 data.

IO+Chemo:
OS Curve Fit
IO+Chemo:
QALYs Gained
IO+Chemo:
Additional Cost
Cost Per QALY
Log Logistic0.88$189,830$214,899
Weibull (Base Case)0.43$181,222$422,313
Gompertz0.09$170,445$1,891,845

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2018 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

Health Services Research, Clinical Informatics, and Quality of Care

Track

Quality Care/Health Services Research

Sub Track

Value/Cost of Care

Citation

J Clin Oncol 36, 2018 (suppl; abstr 6612)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2018.36.15_suppl.6612

Abstract #

6612

Poster Bd #

437

Abstract Disclosures