Causal modeling of CALGB 80405 (Alliance) to identify network drivers of metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC).

Authors

null

Rahul K Das

GNS Healthcare, Cambridge, MA

Rahul K Das , Leon Furchtgott , Jeffrey A. Meyerhardt , Andrew B. Nixon , Federico Innocenti , Daniel Cunha , Kelly Rich , Heinz-Josef Lenz , Donna Niedzwiecki , Eileen Mary O'Reilly , Fang-Shu Ou , Jeanne Latourelle , Diane Wuest , Boris Hayete , Iya Khalil , Alan P. Venook

Organizations

GNS Healthcare, Cambridge, MA, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute/ Partners Cancer Care, Boston, MA, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA

Research Funding

Pharmaceutical/Biotech Company

Background: CALGB 80405 is a phase III clinical trial of FOLFOX/ FOLFIRI with randomly assigned cetuximab/ bevacizumab. Novel causal machine learning approaches to the study dataset may lead to valuable insights into CRC prognosis and management of CRC progression. Methods: Using a Bayesian causal machine learning and simulation platform, we built an ensemble of network models for overall survival (OS). We used 78 baseline clinical and demographic variables for 947 patients with wild-type KRAS tumors. Causal modeling identifies the set of conditional dependencies between variables leading to outcomes. Building an ensemble of causal models estimates model uncertainty and identifies key drivers by model consensus as measured by ensemble frequency (f). Counterfactual simulations were performed on this ensemble to identify causal drivers of disease. Results: Key causal variables of OS (f> 50%) include primary tumor side (f = 85%), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and hemoglobin (HGB) concentrations (f = 100%, 91%), and tumor sites: local primary and intra-abdominal metastases (f = 85%, 89%). Counterfactual simulations, controlling for confounders, suggested a significant causal effect of the following variables on driving OS: AST (median hazard ratio (HR) = 1.3, 75th vs. 25th percentile value; 10th - 90th percentile interval: 1.2-1.4), HGB (0.8, 0.7-0.9), primary side (1.5, 1.0-1.7; right vs. left), and tumor sites (present vs. absent): local primary (1.3, 1.0-1.5), intra-abdominal (1.4, 1.1-1.6) and liver (1.1, 1.04-1.14) metastases. AST was a stronger biomarker of OS in patients with liver metastases (1.6, n = 705) than without (1.2, n = 242). Conclusions: Primary side, AST, HGB, and tumor sites (local primary, intra-abdominal, and liver) play a central role as independent drivers/biomarkers of OS. Availability of these measures at baseline will allow better risk stratification at initiation of treatment. Clinical trial information: U10CA180821, U10CA180882.

Disclaimer

This material on this page is ©2024 American Society of Clinical Oncology, all rights reserved. Licensing available upon request. For more information, please contact licensing@asco.org

Abstract Details

Meeting

2018 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

Gastrointestinal (Colorectal) Cancer

Track

Gastrointestinal Cancer—Colorectal and Anal

Sub Track

Epidemiology/Outcomes

Clinical Trial Registration Number

U10CA180821, U10CA180882

Citation

J Clin Oncol 36, 2018 (suppl; abstr 3570)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2018.36.15_suppl.3570

Abstract #

3570

Poster Bd #

63

Abstract Disclosures