Population-based study predicting the probability of death resulting from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and other causes among NSCLC patients with surgery.

Authors

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Bo Jia

Department of Thoracic Medical Oncology, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, China

Bo Jia , Ziping Wang , Qiwen Zheng , Yuyan Wang , Xinmeng Qi

Organizations

Department of Thoracic Medical Oncology, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, China, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University Key Laboratory of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery (Capital Medical University), Ministry of Education, Beijing, China

Research Funding

Conquer Cancer Foundation of the American Society of Clinical Oncology

Background: This study aimed to predict the probability of death for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who received surgery and construct a comprehensive nomogram prognostic model to predict cumulative incidence of death resulting from NSCLC, other cancers, and non–cancer-related causes. Methods: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute across 18 cancer registry sites in the United States were used for the present study. We estimated probabilities of death resulting from NSCLC, other cancers, and non-cancer causes for NSCLC patients who received surgery and analyzed relationships of patients' characteristics with probability of death. A nomogram prognostic model was used to predict the probability of death. Results: The entire cohort comprised 44,880 NSCLC patients who received surgery from 2004 to 2014. Male, race, tumor anatomic sites, histologic subtype, tumor differentiation, tumor size, tumor extent, lymph node involvement, examined lymph node, positive lymph node, type of surgery showed significant associations with probability of death (P < 0.001). Chemotherapy was associated with a significantly lower cumulative incidence of death (P < 0.001) while radiotherapy was associated with a significantly higher incidence of death (P < 0.001). The nomogram was constructed based on multivariate models with training data set. The probability of 5- or 10-year death can be calculated using this nomogram. In the validation cohort, the unadjusted C-index was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.72-0.74), 0.71 (95% CI, 0.66-0.75) and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.68-0.70) for lung cancer death, other cancer death and non-cancer death causes. Conclusions: A prognostic nomogram model was developed for predicting the probability of death for NSCLC patients who received surgery. This nomogram may be useful for clinicians to develop the best treatment strategies for NSCLC patients after surgery.

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2018 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

Lung Cancer—Non-Small Cell Local-Regional/Small Cell/Other Thoracic Cancers

Track

Lung Cancer

Sub Track

Adjuvant Therapy

Citation

J Clin Oncol 36, 2018 (suppl; abstr 8525)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2018.36.15_suppl.8525

Abstract #

8525

Poster Bd #

131

Abstract Disclosures

Funded by Conquer Cancer