AGO and Charité Campus Virchow-Klinikum, Berlin, Germany
Jalid Sehouli , Radoslav Chekerov , Maren Keller , Gulten Oskay-Oezcelik , Elena Ioana Braicu , Rolf Richter
Background: The goal of this analysis is a predictive score (recurrent ovarian cancer survival score, NOGGO-ROCSurv score) using HRQoL and other risk factors to estimate the risk of 1-year mortality in recurrent ovarian cancer patients. Methods: The data of recurrent patients with baseline HRQoL assessment using the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) QLQ-C30 were selected from the NOGGO data base. ROC analysis were used to evaluate the predictive value of the risk factors and to find cut off values. Multivariable stepwise logistic regression models for 1-year mortality were performed to identify risk factors and their weights for a risk score. Results: Out of 972 patients 808 (83.1%) had 1st, 145 (14.9%) 2nd, and 19 (2.0%) 3rd recurrence, most patients (814, 83.8%) with advanced tumor stage at first diagnosis, 918 (94.4%) with good performance status (PS). The median age was 61 years (range 25-84 years). 1-year survival rate was 67.1%. Nearly all HRQoL scales except cognitive functioning, sleep disturbance, financial difficulties and diarrhea showed predictive value for short term survival with an area under the curve (AUC) up to 62.6% for global quality of life (gQoL). The risk score included chemo therapy free interval (CTFI) < 1 year, PS > 1, gQoL < 25, fatigue > 70, Nausea > 25, age ≥ 75 years, appetite loss > 25 and pre-existing cardiovascular disease (ordered from most to least important). The AUC for the risk score was 0.744 (95% CI 0.708 – 0.780), and the high risk group showed a positive predictive value of 84.5%, a negative predictive value of 72.5%, a sensitivity of 22.3%, and a specificity of 98.0%. Conclusions: HRQoL combined with other risk factors is predictive for 1-year survival. This risk score may help decision making for therapy and may be useful for stratification in randomized trials. But the identified patient group under risk is only small. So an improvement of the score is reasonable and a validation necessary.
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