Development of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening nomograms for 15-year prediction of prostate cancer diagnosis (PCDx), mortality (PCM), and all-cause mortality (ACM).

Authors

null

Michael Austin Brooks

Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH

Michael Austin Brooks , Sigrid V. Carlsson , Alexander Zajichek , Kevin M. Chagin , Jonas Hugosson , Michael W. Kattan , Andrew J. Stephenson

Organizations

Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, Cleveland Cancer Foundation, Cleveland, OH, Sahlgrenska Academy, Gothenburg University, Gothenburg, Sweden

Research Funding

Other Foundation

Background: Recommendations for PSA screening encourage shared decision making between patients and providers, rather than population-based screening. Nomograms provide individualized risk predictions potentially enhancing informed decisions to undergo screening. Our objective was to develop PSA screening nomograms using demographic and follow-up data from two large randomized screening trials: the Göteborg Screening Trial (Lancet Oncol. 2010;11:725-32) and Prostate, Lung, Colon, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial (N Engl J Med. 2009;360:1310-9). The endpoints of the models were PCDx, PCM, and ACM at 15 years. Methods: Patients with screening prior to trial entry were excluded, leaving 59,951 total subjects: 19,899 and 40,052 from Göteborg and PLCO, respectively. Demographic information including age, family history of PCDx, ethnicity, Charlson Comorbidity Index, marital status, education, and control vs. screening arm were used as predictive variables. If screened, baseline PSA was used as an additional continuous variable. Models for ACM were first developed, then models predicting PCDx and PCM using competing risk analysis. Predictive accuracy was assessed using the concordance index (c-index) and calibration plots. Results: On multivariable analysis, all variables were significant (P < 0.05) for predicting at least one outcome. Nomograms predicting PCDx, PCM, and ACM demonstrated reasonable discrimination: c-index 0.60, 0.65, 0.70, respectively. When a single baseline PSA was included, discriminative accuracy improved for PCDx and PCM, but remained the same for ACM: c-index 0.78, 0.74, 0.69, respectively. Estimates were well-calibrated for all endpoints. Conclusions: Using demographic information, we developed PSA screening nomograms, with good discrimination and calibration in predicting all three outcomes. A single baseline PSA improved nomogram discrimination substantially for PCDx and PCM. We will study the implementation of these nomograms into clinic practice to aid decisions for previously unscreened patients, or whether to continue PSA screening for patients with a known prior PSA.

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2018 Genitourinary Cancers Symposium

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

Poster Session A: Prostate Cancer

Track

Prostate Cancer,Prostate Cancer

Sub Track

Prostate Cancer - Localized Disease

Citation

J Clin Oncol 36, 2018 (suppl 6S; abstr 110)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2018.36.6_suppl.110

Abstract #

110

Poster Bd #

F8

Abstract Disclosures

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