Prediction of overall survival for metastatic pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine monotherapy: Development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram with open clinical trial data.

Authors

null

Junjie Hang

The Changzhou Second People’s Hospital Affiliated With Nanjing Medical University, Changzhou, China

Junjie Hang , Lixia Wu , Jiadi Du , Hua Jiang , Kequn Xu

Organizations

The Changzhou Second People’s Hospital Affiliated With Nanjing Medical University, Changzhou, China, Shanghai Zhabei District Central Hospital, Shanghai, China, Rutgers University, Newark, NJ

Research Funding

Other Foundation

Background: There is a need for prognostic tools in metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC) because they have the potential to optimize patients’ selection in clinical trail and guide treatment strategies. We address this issue by developing and validating a prognostic nomogram with open clinical trail data. Methods: Data from the comparator arm of three clinical trails (NCT00844649, NCT01124786 and NCT00574275) in MPC treated with gemcitabine as first-line chemotherapy were analyzed. The former two were taken as training cohort while NCT00574275 was used as validation cohort. Cox regression model was used to investigate prognostic factors from twenty-three baseline characteristics in training cohort. Based on these factors, a nomogram was developed and internally validated with Harrell’s Concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. It was further externally validated in the validation cohort. Results: In the training cohort (n = 445), performance status, liver metastasis, CA19-9 log-value, neutrophil, platelet (PLT) and albumin were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). A nomogram based on these factors was generated to predict OS and survival probabilities. The nomogram showed an acceptable discrimination ability (C-index: 0.683) and good calibration. The prognostic score based on nomogram could stratify patients into three-risk groups with median OS of 11.7, 7.0 and 3.7 months (P < 0.001). The nomogram was further externally validated in validation cohort (n = 273, C-index: 0.699); median OS of 10.6, 7.3 and 4.0 months for the three-risk groups (P < 0.001). Conclusions: The prognostic nomogram can accurately predict OS for MPC treated with gemcitabine as first-line chemotherapy.

Multivariate analysis of prognostic factors for OS in MPC patients

CharacteristicsHR95%CIP-value
Performance status
ECOG PS = 00.2660.154-0.457< 0.001
ECOG PS = 10.5170.323-0.8270.006
ECOG PS = 2
Liver metastasis
Yes1.4911.114-1.9960.007
No
CA 19-9 log-value1.1141.030-1.2060.007
Neutrophil1.1991.016-1.4150.031
PLT1.0011.000-1.0020.021
Albumin0.9400.906-0.9750.001

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2018 Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

Poster Session B: Cancers of the Pancreas, Small Bowel, and Hepatobiliary Tract

Track

Cancers of the Pancreas, Small Bowel, and Hepatobiliary Tract

Sub Track

Prevention, Diagnosis, and Screening

Citation

J Clin Oncol 36, 2018 (suppl 4S; abstr 237)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2018.36.4_suppl.237

Abstract #

237

Poster Bd #

B12

Abstract Disclosures

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