Background: Penile preserving surgery for penile cancer is associated with a higher risk of local recurrence (LR). This study developed a predictive model for LR following glansectomy and split skin graft reconstruction . Methods: Retrospective review performed of 177 patients undergoing glansectomy over a 10 year period. The clinicopathological features, LR patterns and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were recorded. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to identify prognostic indicators for LR. The hazard ratio (HR) for LR was estimated using a KM analysis and based on these data we designed a postoperative model for the prediction of LR. Results: The median follow-up period following surgery was 41.4 (1.9-155) months. In total, 9.3 % of the patients developed a LR. Univariate, but not multivariate logistic regression identified perineural invasion (PNI), carcinoma in situ and high grade disease, but not basaloid variant, T stage, lymphovascular invasion and positive resection margins on the specimen to be predictors of LR. A risk model was designed using PNI, CIS and high grade disease in the resected specimen. KM analysis and log rank test revealed no significant differences in LR-free survival between patients with 0 vs 1 or 2 vs 3 risk factors whereas the chance of having local recurrence with 2 risk factors was significantly higher (HR = 5,75; 95% CI 1,43 to 23,15) than with 1 risk factor. A risk stratification model based on a cut-off score of > 1 out of 3 risk factors discriminated well between patients with a high vs low chance of recurrence in a Kaplan-Meier analysis (HR 9.18, 95% CI 3.29 to 25.65 P < 0.001). Indeed, ROC-curve analysis showed an optimal cut-off point of > 1 risk factors with an AUC of 0.77 (P < 0.001, specificity 63%, specificity of 85%) for prediction of LR. Conclusions: Although,LR after glansectomy does not affect the CSS, patients at risk of local recurrence can be identified when > 1 of the factors PNI, CIS and high grade are found on histopathological analysis of the glans. These findings can define the frequency of follow-up and -if validated on pre-op biopsy- potentially be helpful in planning the margins of surgical resection in patients with penile SCC.