DECURION: A new model for predicting breast and ovarian cancer risks based on family history using French population incidences and Institut Curie’s database.

Authors

null

Gregory Nuel

Laboratory of Probability (LPMA, UMR CNRS 7599), Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Sorbonne Universités, Paris, France

Gregory Nuel , Tinhinan Belaribi , Dorothee Le Gal , Olivier Bouaziz , Flora Alarcon , Severine Eon-Marchais , Nadine Andrieu , Marie-Gabrielle Dondon , Antoine de Pauw , Dominique Stoppa-Lyonnet

Organizations

Laboratory of Probability (LPMA, UMR CNRS 7599), Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Sorbonne Universités, Paris, France, LPMA, Stochastics and Biology Group (PSB), UPMC, Paris, France, Inserm U900, Institut Curie, Paris MinesTech, PSL Research University, Paris, France, MAP5 (CNRS 8145), Université Paris Descartes, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France, Institut Curie, Paris, France

Research Funding

Other

Background: Nowadays, assessing the cancer risk of patients with severe history of cancer is a routine task for the clinical genetic centers. Due to the complex genetic and environmental factors involved in cancers, risk assessment requires sophisticated probabilistic/statistical models whose parameters (incidence, relative hazards, allele frequencies, etc.) are both population-dependent and delicate to calibrate. Methods: We introduce a new model similar to BOADICEA [1] where cancer hazards depend both on individual genetic factors X (e.g. BRCA1, BRCA2) and on a familial frailty Z (e.g. unmeasured polygenic factors or shared environmental exposures). Model computations are performed combining survival analysis with state-of-art belief propagation methods [2] (i.e. generalization of Elston-Stewart algorithm to arbitrary pedigrees). Calibration of model parameters are done combining French population incidences with Institut Curie’s database (a total of 6,262 families, 22% of the tested families being BRCA carriers). Results: The new model has several advantages: 1) it fully exploits the extensive Institute Curie’s database and hence provides better risk assessment for the French patients; 2) it takes into account rigorously and efficiently any consanguinity or mating loops; 3) it provides the full posterior distribution of any individual in the pedigree and provides an individual exact posterior incidence adjusted on age; 4) it allows to consider jointly groups of individuals (ex: siblings) and to compute collective risks (ex: at least one sibling is a carrier, competitive cancer incidence in the group, etc.); 5) it benefits from a user-friendly graphical interface which considerably reduces the input burden for the clinicians. Conclusions: Taking advantage of both a solid mathematical background and of the extensive databases of Institut Curie, the new DECURION model seems to provide better risk estimates that its direct competitors and could be a promising tool for any clinician interested in cancer genetics. [1] Antoniou, Pharoah, Smith, and Easton (2004). British journal of cancer. [2] Koller and Friedman (2009). MIT Press.

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2016 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

Cancer Prevention, Genetics, and Epidemiology

Track

Prevention, Risk Reduction, and Genetics

Sub Track

Cancer Genetics

Citation

J Clin Oncol 34, 2016 (suppl; abstr 1534)

DOI

10.1200/JCO.2016.34.15_suppl.1534

Abstract #

1534

Poster Bd #

357

Abstract Disclosures

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