Recurrence score and quantitative ER expression to predict in late distant recurrence risk in ER+ BC after 5 years of tamoxifen.

Authors

null

Norman Wolmark

National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project; The Allegheny Cancer Center at Allegheny General Hospital, Pittsburgh, PA

Norman Wolmark , Eleftherios P Mamounas , Frederick L. Baehner , Steven M. Butler , Gong Tang , Farid Jamshidian , Amy P. Sing , Steven Shak , Soonmyung Paik

Organizations

National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project; The Allegheny Cancer Center at Allegheny General Hospital, Pittsburgh, PA, National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP), and the UF Health Cancer Center - Orlando Health, Orlando, FL, Genomic Health, Inc., Redwood City, CA, NSABP Biostatistical Center and University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, PA, NSABP, and Severance Biomedical Science Institute and Department of Medical Oncology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA

Research Funding

No funding sources reported

Background: Identification of molecular determinants predicting late recurrence (>5 yrs) in stage I and II breast cancer has become clinically important in light of data demonstrating a benefit for ten yrs of tamoxifen administration. Since the 21-gene Recurrence Score (RS) is commonly utilized in early stage BC, we wished to determine its utility in predicting distant recurrences beyond five yrs as a function of quantitative ER expression. Methods: The 21-gene RS was assessed in 1,065 chemo and tam-treated, ER+, node-positive pts from NSABP B-28 and 668 tam-treated, ER+, node-negative pts from NSABP B-14. Cox PH models, KM estimates and log rank statistics were used to assess the association of the RS with risk of DR by quantitative ER expression, using the 21-gene assay, in pts event-free after 5 yrs. We established an ER cut-point (high vs low) in B-28, and tested the cut-point in B-14, formally evaluating the interaction of RS and ER. Results: Median follow-up was 11.2 yrs (B-28) and 14.5 yrs (B-14). 832 B-28 pts and 564 B-14 pts were DR-free after 5 yrs. A reference normalized ER cut-point of 9.1 CTwas established in B-28 based on the association of the RS with DR after 5 yrs. Of the event-free pts at 5 yrs, 68% in B-28 and 88% in B-14 had ER>9.1. In B-28 the RS result was strongly associated with DR after 5 yrs in the higher ER expressing pts (log rank P=0.001), but not in the lower ER expressing pts (log rank P=0.87). It was confirmed in the B-14 data that RS was associated with DR after 5 yrs in higher ER pts (Table) but not in the lower ER pts (interaction P=0.03). Conclusions: For late recurrences (beyond 5 yrs), the RS is strongly prognostic in pts with higher quantitative ER expression (>9.1). The findings suggest that extending tamoxifen beyond 5 yrs may be most beneficial in pts with high (and intermediate) RS with higher quantitative ER expression and of limited benefit in pts with a low RS (>50% of population under study).

DR Risk after 5 yrs in B-14 by RS risk group for pts with ER>9.1 CT.
RS risk group N (%) pts %DR KM estimate (95% CI)
5 to 10 yrs % 5 to 15 yrs %
Low 289 (58%) 4.7 (2.8 - 8.0) 6.8 (4.4 - 10.6)
Intermediate 111 (22%) 4.1 (1.6 - 10.6) 11.2 (6.2 - 19.9)
High 97 (20%) 12.6 (7.4 - 21.2) 16.4 (10.2 - 25.7)
Log rank P=0.01

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2014 ASCO Annual Meeting

Session Type

Poster Highlights Session

Session Title

Tumor Biology

Track

Tumor Biology

Sub Track

Genomic and Epigenomic Biomarkers

Citation

J Clin Oncol 32:5s, 2014 (suppl; abstr 11024)

DOI

10.1200/jco.2014.32.15_suppl.11024

Abstract #

11024

Poster Bd #

13

Abstract Disclosures