PSA doubling time of ≤6 months as the optimal cutoff for predicting clinically relevant outcomes for men receiving salvage radiation therapy post radical prostatectomy.

Authors

null

William C. Jackson

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI

William C. Jackson , Skyler B. Johnson , Benjamin Foster , Corey Foster , Yeohan Song , Darren Li , Howard Mark Sandler , Ganesh S. Palapattu , Daniel A. Hamstra , Felix Yi-Chung Feng

Organizations

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, University of Michigan, East Lansing, MI, Samuel Oschin Comprehensive Cancer Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, University of Michigan Medical Center, Ann Arbor, MI

Research Funding

No funding sources reported

Background: Short PSA doubling time (PSADT) after biochemical recurrence (BR) post radical prostatectomy (RP) is known to predict worse outcomes following salvage external beam radiation therapy (SRT). The ideal PSADT cut-off, however, in this context remains uncertain. In this study, we sought to identify the best PSADT cut-off for predicting clinical outcomes following SRT for BR after RP. Methods: 575 patients who received SRT at a single institution for BR after RP were retrospectively reviewed in an IRB approved analysis. The impact of PSADT on biochemical failure (BF), distant metastasis (DM), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), and overall survival (OS) was assessed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox Proportional Hazards models. Results: Median follow up was 56.7 months post SRT. PSADTs could be calculated for 277 patients. PSADT strongly predicted BF, DM, PCSM, and OS on univariate analysis regardless of cut-off point. There was no statistical difference in BF, DM, PCSM, or OS between patients with PSADT <3 (n=40) and 3-6 months (n=61) or between 6-10 (n=62) and >10 months (n=114). A difference existed in BF (p<0.01 HR: 2.2 [95%CI: 1.4-3.5]) and DM (p=0.02 HR: 2.2 [95%CI: 1.2-4.3]) between PSADT of 3-6 and 6-10 months. PSADT ≤6 had the largest positive predictive value (PPV) for BF (70%), DM (36%), and PCSM (13%) at 5 years. There was no difference in negative predictive value between a PSADT >10 vs. >6 months for BF, DM, PCSM, and OS with 5 year rates of (60% vs. 60%, 86% vs. 86%, 99% vs. 98%, and 95 vs. 94% respectively). On multivariate analysis PSADT ≤6 was a strong predictor of BF (p<0.01 HR: 2.1 [95%CI: 1.5-3.0]), DM (p=0.01 HR: 2.0 [95%CI: 1.2-3.4]), and PCSM (p=0.04 HR: 2.3 [95%CI: 1.1-5.2]), with a trend towards predicting OS (p=0.12 HR: 1.5 [95%CI: 0.9-2.6]). Conclusions: A PSADT ≤6 months was the best predictor of outcomes in our data set, particularly for DM and PCSM. Currently, the most common predictive nomogram for SRT uses PSADT <10 months as the cut-off point for BF. These results suggest that using a PSADT of ≤6 months may improve the ability to predict clinically significant outcomes and hence identify men who may benefit from additional therapy.

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2013 Genitourinary Cancers Symposium

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

General Poster Session A: Prostate Cancer

Track

Prostate Cancer

Sub Track

Prostate Cancer

Citation

J Clin Oncol 31, 2013 (suppl 6; abstr 167)

DOI

10.1200/jco.2013.31.6_suppl.167

Abstract #

167

Poster Bd #

K16

Abstract Disclosures