A genomic classifier independently prognostic of prostate cancer death in a high-risk surgical cohort.

Authors

null

Matthew R. Cooperberg

University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA

Matthew R. Cooperberg , Anamaria Crisan , Anirban Pradip Mitra , Mercedeh Ghadessi , Christine Buerki , Elai Davicioni

Organizations

University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, GenomeDx Biosciences Inc., Vancouver, BC, Canada, University of Southern California, Norris Comprehensive Cancer Center, Los Angeles, CA

Research Funding

No funding sources reported

Background: Biomarkers may improve ascertainment of progression risk after radical prostatectomy (RP). We compared two validated post-RP classifiers: the Decipher genomic classifier (GC) and CAPRA-S (based on standard clinicopathologic parameters), to predict prostate cancer-specific mortality (CSM) in a contemporary cohort of RP patients. Methods: From a cohort of 1,010 RP patients treated from 2000-06, a case-cohort design was used to analyze a subset of 219 men with one or more high risk features and available paraffin-embedded tissue. Median follow-up was 6 years. The GC, derived from expression levels of 22 biomarkers and dichotomized to denote low- and high-risk, and CAPRA-S, calculated from preoperative PSA and pathologic grade and staging variables, scores were determined. The scores were evaluated individually and in combination using concordance index, decision curve, (DC), re-classification, and Cox analyses for prediction of CSM. Results: 212 men had full data available to calculate the CAPRA-S; 27 experienced CSM. The c-index for GC (0.78) and CAPRA-S (0.76) were similar, although GC showed improved calibration and higher net-benefit on DC analysis. In 103 patients with high-risk CAPRA-S scores (≥6), GC scores were likewise high-risk for 49, among whom 19 had CSM events. The other 54 men were reclassified as low-risk by GC; among these only 1 CSM event was observed. In multivariable Cox analysis both GC and CAPRA-S were independently prognostic of CSM, with hazard ratios of 1.62 (p<0.001) and 1.22 (p=0.01), respectively for unit score increases. A combined model defined based on the Cox model as (0.20*CAPRA-S + 5.68*GC) was more accurate than either score alone (p<0.001 by likelihood ratio test). DC analysis indicated greater net benefit for the combined model than for either score alone. Conclusions: In men treated with RP at high risk of recurrence based on clinical and pathologic variables, both GC and CAPRA-S were significant predictors of CSM. Notably, GC was able to 'down-risk' >50% of men stratified to high risk based on CAPRA-S alone. Thus the GC provides independent prognostic information, and a model integrating GC and CAPRA-S may further improve the prediction of lethal prostate cancer.

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Abstract Details

Meeting

2013 Genitourinary Cancers Symposium

Session Type

Poster Session

Session Title

General Poster Session A: Prostate Cancer

Track

Prostate Cancer

Sub Track

Prostate Cancer

Citation

J Clin Oncol 31, 2013 (suppl 6; abstr 60)

DOI

10.1200/jco.2013.31.6_suppl.60

Abstract #

60

Poster Bd #

D15

Abstract Disclosures